Pork prices remain high

The largest declines were seen in Denmark (-21%) and the UK (-17%), followed by the Netherlands (-12%), Germany (-9%), Spain (-7%), Poland (-7%). %), France (-6%) and Italy (-5%). The availability of pork in Europe decreased by 7% from January to April 2023 compared to the same period of the previous year.

The fact that this volume fell less than the volume of production is explained by the fact that exports from the EU to third countries also fell by 18% or 250,000 tons - in particular to the Philippines (-62,000 tons), to SOUTH KOREA (-34 000 tons), usa (-25,000 tons) and Japan (-16,000 tons). Exports to CHINA remained at an acceptable level in the first four months of the year, down only 4%. However, in the second half of the year, market experts at Rabobank expect demand from China to decline .

In addition to the low supply, Rabobank sees lower feed costs as an important factor for good profit margins in pig production in the coming months. The reaction of the feed and grain markets to the non-extended grain deal between Ukraine and RUSSIA has been manageable so far. The effects of the blockade of the Black Sea routes are also less than a year ago, and now Ukraine has also opened up alternative EXPORT routes across the Danube. However, this situation should lead to increased price risk. Dry weather conditions in the US, CANADA and the EU will also have a negative impact on grain yields.