NYT Reports 'Remarkable Resilience' of Russian Economy

Analysts interviewed by the publication note that Russia's foreign trade has returned to the level of February 2022. The Federal Customs Service has not published statistics since spring, but in October the agency noted an increase in exports compared to last year

Despite tough Western sanctions over the fighting in Ukraine, the Russian economy has proven to be "surprisingly resilient", raising questions about the effectiveness of restrictive measures, writes The New York Times.

The publication reports that Russian foreign trade appears to be back to February 2022 levels. According to analysts cited by the newspaper, RUSSIA has already restored or will soon restore imports to this level. The Federal Customs Service stopped publishing statistics on imports and exports in the spring. But in October, the first deputy HEAD of the Federal Customs Service, Ruslan Davydov, reported that exports from Russia for the nine months of 2022 amounted to $431 billion (plus 25% compared to 2021), and imports - $180 billion (minus 16%)

As the NYT notes, this may partly be due to the fact that it is difficult for many countries to stop doing business in Russia. The newspaper recalls a study by the Swiss IMD Institute and the University of St. Gallen, according to which less than 9% of companies from the EU and G7 countries left Russia. Also, the newspaper writes, it was difficult for a number of states to reduce their dependence on Russian energy resources and other basic goods, and the Russian Central Bank managed to support the ruble exchange rate and maintain stability in financial markets.

The experts appreciatedhow Russia adapted to the “import shock” Economics

At the same time, the publication points out, sanctions against the largest Russian banks and restrictions on the EXPORT of dual-use goods and technologies block access to a range of products for Russians. Samsung and APPLE stopped importing their equipment to Russia in the first days of March 2022 (the products of these companies are included in the list of goods for parallel imports).

Exports of popular Chinese phone brands such as Xiaomi, Realme and Honor also initially declined, but then "began to pick up momentum" and reached record levels in December, said Andrew David, senior DIRECTOR of research and analysis at US nonprofit Silverado Policy Accelerator. Also, he says, Apple and Samsung phones have begun to return to Russia, “redirected through friendly neighboring countries” such as Armenia, Turkey, Central Asian countries.

Potanin said about the "amazing stability" of the economy Economics

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A Silverado report released earlier in January said countries such as CHINA , Belarus and Turkey have ramped up exports to Russia above pre-military levels in Ukraine. As a result, many imported consumer goods, including smartphones, household appliances, and cars, remain available, thanks in part to the fact that a number of countries have become transit points for the re-export of such goods to Russia.

Norilsk Nickel owner Vladimir Potanin said in an interview with RBC that the Russian economy has proven surprisingly resilient to Western sanctions, despite pressure from "unfriendly countries." According to the International Monetary Fund, in 2022 Russia's GDP shrank by 2.2% (according to the forecast made in October, the decline should have been at the level of 3.4%). This year, the fund predicts Russia's GDP growth by 0.3% (according to the previous forecast, a decline of 2.3% was expected), and in 2024 - by 2.1%.