Risk control: how did the draft budget turn out

The state budget is a concentrated expression of economic policy; it must provide answers to the challenges facing society and the state. This is all the more important now, when the world is facing a severe and unprecedented crisis in the last hundred years, which is based on non-economic prerequisites. Against its background, the contours and mechanisms of the future society and the future economy are rapidly forming.

The draft federal budget for 2021-2023 presented by the government was prepared in the unique conditions of external shocks with uncertain short- and medium-term consequences, and not only for our country. And this alone makes the work on the budget exceptionally difficult, requiring from its developers a combination of firmness and flexibility at the same time. I must say right away that, in my opinion, the government has generally coped with this challenge.

It should be noted that the project has obvious signs of a development budget, that is, it is aimed at solving both anti-crisis tasks and the implementation of long-term national priorities determined by the decree of the President of RUSSIA dated July 21, 2020. An active budget policy aimed at mitigating the consequences of the crisis and continuing structural modernization, at the same time, also implies fiscal consolidation measures amid falling revenues, which will allow tight control of spending and prevent a budget crisis.

In Russian conditions, the budget is the most important way to soften the blow of the crisis for people and businesses. Already in 2020, anti-crisis measures (direct spending, tax cuts and tax deferrals) amounted to about 3.5–3.8% of GDP, which made it possible to significantly limit the depth of the economic downturn, which is expected to reach 4% of GDP (in spring, expectations were much more dramatic). It can be argued that in Russia the measures of budget support turned out to be among the most effective: in Germany, similar support amounted to 4.8% of GDP with a decline of 6%, in the usa  - 11 and 4.2%, in France - 5.1 and 9.8 % respectively. And in the future, a rather cautious attitude to the increase in budget expenditures is expected, taking into account the fact that not only volume is important, but above all efficiency.