What is the Doomsday Clock and why is it so important?

The Doomsday Clock , currently at 89 seconds to midnight, indicates how close humanity is to a "global catastrophe" on January 28, 2025.

Content:

• What does the Doomsday Clock mean?
• When did the Doomsday Clock appear?
• Who controls the shooters and how are decisions made?
• How the position of the hands changed
• Why 89 seconds is a critical mark
• Can the hands move back?
• Interesting facts about the Doomsday Clock

What does the Doomsday Clock mean?

The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic indicator created in 1947 by a group of nuclear scientists to visually depict the threat of global catastrophe. Its "midnight" is the conventional point at which human civilization ends. The fewer minutes or seconds remain until that moment, the higher, according to scientists, the likelihood of devastating events: from nuclear conflict and climate catastrophes to technological failures and pandemics. The term "Doomsday" here refers not to the eschatological event in the Abrahamic religions preceding the end of the world, but to a set of risks that could threaten the existence of humanity. Since its inception, the clock's hand has moved 26 times (eight times backward and 18 times forward), and it currently stands at 89 seconds to midnight.

When did the Doomsday Clock appear?

The clock was "wound" in June 1947 by the Atomic Scientists of Chicago. It was founded in September 1945 at the University of Chicago by physicists who had participated in the Manhattan Project to create nuclear weapons and who later became staunch opponents of this technology. Among them were Robert Oppenheimer, Eugene Rabinowitz, and Albert Einstein. The organization's goal was to warn the world of the deadly consequences of the arms race. In December 1945, the first Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the organization's biweekly publication, was published. Its co-founders were Hyman Goldsmith and Eugene Rabinowitz, and its contributors included such influential scientists as Albert Einstein, Bertrand Russell, Stuart Chase, and Max Born. Two years later, the newsletter was expanded into a full-fledged journal. Working on the cover design at Goldsmith's request, artist Martyl Langsdorff settled on a clock with white minute and black hour hands, symbolizing the countdown and the urgent need to control the proliferation of nuclear weapons. In the final version of the cover, the clock showed 11:53 PM, as Langsdorff admitted she visually liked the arrangement of the hands. The first issue of the magazine with this clock was published in June 1947, and since then, the clock has appeared on the cover of every issue. In 1949, the idea was proposed to move the minute hand four minutes to the right to represent the increasing risks associated with the USSR's acquisition of the atomic bomb. In 2007, artist Martin Bierut revised the clock face design, which is still used today on the organization's products and at public events. In 2009, the Bulletin transitioned to an online format.

Nobel Prize-winning physicist Leon Lederman updates the Doomsday Clock to 11:53 p.m., 2002. (Photo: Tim Boyle/Getty Images)

Over time, the clock ceased to reflect solely the nuclear threat and became an indicator of other global risks as well. It now takes into account three other global factors: climate change, biological threats, and the potentially devastating consequences of digital technologies, particularly artificial intelligence. Today, the Doomsday Clock remains one of the most recognizable symbols of humanity's vulnerability, reminding us of our responsibility for the decisions we make.

Who controls the shooters and how are decisions made?

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, an independent nonprofit organization based in the United States , monitors the Doomsday Clock . Each year, its experts update the position of the hands.

The revision takes into account a wide range of factors: nuclear conflicts and arms races, climate risks, pandemics and other biological threats, as well as new challenges associated with the development of artificial intelligence. The analysis is based on an assessment of the international situation, geopolitics, and trends in science and technology.

Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Initially, the Bulletin's editor-in-chief, Eugene Rabinowitz, was responsible for the movement of the hands. After his death in 1973, decisions were made collectively. This responsibility falls to the Science and Security Board, which includes physicists, ecologists, biologists, and experts in cybersecurity and international relations. The Council of Contributors, which includes more than a dozen Nobel laureates, is involved in the discussions. Their consensus opinion reflects the collective view of the academic and expert community on the state of global security and is published in the organization's journal. Experts and scientists meet twice a year.

How the position of the hands changed

The Doomsday Clock was first set at 7 minutes to midnight in 1947. Although artist Martill Langsdorff chose this position solely for visual balance, from the very beginning the clock symbolized a real threat: the possibility of nuclear conflict amid the nascent Cold War. Since then, the hands have been moved 26 times.

Over the years, the clock's hands have moved closer to or further from midnight, depending on the state of international relations and global processes. The safest moment was 1991: after the collapse of the USSR and the signing of agreements to reduce nuclear arsenals, the clock's hands were moved a record 17 minutes past midnight.

Curiously, the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 had no effect on the clock's movement forward. This is because it occurred between meetings to review the clock's position: during this time, the USSR and the US had reached a compromise, and in 1963, they agreed to establish a "hotline" and signed the Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapons in the Atmospheric Tests. So the clock's hands were moved back five minutes.

The most dangerous milestones were recorded in 2023 (90 seconds) and January 2025 (just 89 seconds before midnight). This is the shortest distance to a catastrophe in recorded history. Experts attribute this to a combination of factors: the Russian-Ukrainian conflict with threats of nuclear weapons use or destruction of nuclear facilities, a general crisis in global security, accelerating climate change, and the rapid development of artificial intelligence technologies.

Below is a chart showing how the distance to midnight has changed from the time the clock was first created to the present day.

• 1947  - Launch: Seven minutes to midnight.

• 1949  - three minutes to midnight (USSR atomic bomb test).

• 1953  – two minutes (hydrogen bomb tests by the USSR and the usa in 1952–1953).

• 1960  – seven minutes (negotiations in Geneva between the USSR and the USA and the imposition of a moratorium on nuclear weapons testing by US President Dwight Eisenhower).

• 1963  – 12 minutes (signing of the USSR and the USA treaty banning nuclear weapons tests in the atmosphere, outer space and under water).

• 1968  - seven minutes (the Vietnam War, the Indo-Pakistani conflict in 1965, the Arab-Israeli war of 1967, the development of nuclear weapons by France and CHINA).

• 1969  - ten minutes (signing of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons).

• 1972  - 12 minutes (strategic arms limitation talks, Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty of 1972).

• 1974  – nine minutes (first nuclear weapons tests by India, improvement of nuclear weapons delivery systems in the USSR and the USA).

• 1980  - Seven minutes (strategic arms limitation talks reach a dead end).

• 1981  – four minutes (the entry of Soviet troops into Afghanistan in 1979, the election of Ronald Reagan as US President in 1980).

• 1984  – three minutes to midnight (the “coldest point” in relations between the USSR and the USA and fears of a new arms race).

• 1988  – six minutes (signing of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty by the USA and the USSR in 1987).

• 1990  – ten minutes (the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, perestroika in the USSR, the collapse of the Eastern Bloc).

• 1991  – 17 minutes (signing of the START I treaty).

• 1995  - 14 minutes (Norwegian missile incident in January 1995 with a false alarm of the Russian missile attack warning system).

• 1998  - nine minutes (In May of that year, India conducts its second series of nuclear tests, and three weeks later, Pakistan conducts its first nuclear tests).

• 2002  - seven minutes (increased international tensions after the September 11 terrorist attacks in the United States, risks of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorist organizations).

• 2007  – five minutes (the first nuclear tests in the DPRK in 2006 and the escalation around Iran’s nuclear program).

• 2010  - six minutes (UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen in 2009 with the signing of the Copenhagen Agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, new negotiations between RUSSIA and the United States on the reduction and limitation of arms to replace the expired 1991 treaty).

• 2012  – five minutes (disagreements between Russia and the US on missile defense, inadequate progress on nuclear disarmament, insufficient cooperation between nine nuclear-weapon states, uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear program).

• 2015  - three minutes ( Russia and the United States are actively modernizing their nuclear forces, there is no progress on disarmament issues).

• 2017  – two minutes and thirty seconds (deterioration of relations between Russia and the US over the conflicts in Syria, Ukraine and NATO borders, the fourth and fifth underground nuclear tests in North Korea, escalation between India and Pakistan in Kashmir, the election of Republican Donald Trump as US President with controversial views on climate change and disarmament issues).

• 2018  - Two Minutes (escalating tensions between the US and North Korea, "difficulties" in US-Russia relations, the situation in the South China Sea, rising tensions between India and Pakistan and uncertainty about US support for the Iran nuclear deal, abuses of information technology, the vulnerability of democracies to disinformation on social media).

• 2020  – one minute and forty seconds (degradation of the arms control system, cessation of cooperation between Russia and the United States on disarmament, tensions surrounding the nuclear programs of the DPRK and Iran, information wars in cyberspace).

• 2023  - 90 seconds to midnight (Russian-Ukrainian conflict with Moscow's "veiled threats" to use nuclear weapons and military action near the Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plants, the situation around the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty between Moscow and Washington, the destruction of global norms and institutions needed to reduce the risks associated with the development of technology and biological threats such ascovid-19 ).

• 2025  - 89 seconds to midnight (dangerous trends continue and "national leaders and societies have done nothing to change this").

Why 89 seconds is a critical mark

Photo: Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images

The Council of Atomic Scientists emphasizes that the current value reflects the simultaneous impact of several systemic threats. The key factor was the military actions in Ukraine, which have sharply increased the risk of nuclear weapons use and increased instability in Europe.

At the same time, the position of the hands was influenced by the climate crisis, accompanied by extreme weather events, and the threat of new biological risks, which became especially evident during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Experts also note the accelerating development of artificial intelligence technologies: while they offer new opportunities, they also pose risks of uncontrolled use in various fields, particularly in the military and cybercrime. The Bulletin jury believes that the combined effects of these factors are keeping the needle at a critical point.

Critics of the Doomsday Clock emphasize the decisive role of subjective scientific judgments, as well as the lack of a transparent risk assessment methodology used by the Bulletin's compilers. Some point to the paradoxical logic of the clock's position: for example, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the world was further from midnight than in the relatively "peaceful" year of 2007. Among alternative risk measurement tools, they cite the World Economic Forum's annual Global Risk Report, which, based on survey data from approximately 1,500 experts, identifies the main global risks facing humanity over the next two and ten years, as well as a similar UN project.

Can the hands move back?

The Doomsday Clock's position isn't fixed forever. The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists emphasizes that the clock could be moved back if global tensions ease, as in 1991.

Experts believe that ending major conflicts, avoiding nuclear escalation, international climate cooperation, and technology control could be grounds for revising the current value.

Thus, the movement of the hands reflects not only threats, but also progress: every step toward dialogue and de-escalation increases the chances of moving humanity away from the supposed Day of Judgment.

Interesting facts about the Doomsday Clock

Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

• It's a symbol, not an actual mechanism—the clock has no real hands, but exists as a visual metaphor in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists publications.

• They are on display in Chicago—a model of the Doomsday Clock is located at the University of Chicago, where the Bulletin's editorial office is located.

• The decision is made collectively—the time before midnight is determined by the Bulletin's Science and Security Council, with the participation of experts, including Nobel Prize laureates.

• The clock has an analogue - the so-called Climate Clock, which shows the time remaining until the point of irreversible climate change.

Watches have become part of popular culture, appearing in films, books, and music, such as the comic book and film adaptation of Watchmen, where the symbolism of watches is used as a metaphor for the approaching apocalypse.