Experts rated Russia's indicators for March with the words "island of stability"

The March indicators on the Russian economy that appeared the day before create the impression of an “island of stability,” analysts at Renaissance Capital wrote.They still expect an 8% decline in GDP and an increase in unemployment by the summer

The statistical indicators of the Russian economy for March 2022, released on April 27 by Rosstat and the Ministry of Economic Development, “paint a picture of RUSSIA as an island of stability, at least for now,” write Renaissance Capital analysts Sofia Donets and Andrey Melashchenko in a note to clients on April 28 ( have RBC). According to them, the surge in consumer demand and the decline in business activity caused by the sanctions crisis "seem insignificant at the moment."

However, Renaissance expects that both industrial production and retail trade turnover will show negative dynamics in annual terms in April, and unemployment will become the main factor for concern by the middle of the year.

In March 2022, the retail trade turnover in Russia in comparable prices, according to Rosstat, increased by 2.2% compared to March of the previous year. Including sales of food products increased by 5.1% in annual terms (compared to 3.4% growth in February), non-food products - decreased by 0.3% (after an increase of 7.9% a month earlier). The "major surprises", according to analysts, were the unemployment rate, which in March remained unchanged compared to February and amounted to 4.1%, and the industrial production index, which rose by 3% compared to March 2021 (the market expected a decrease in , the authors note).

The Ministry of Economic Development estimated Russia's GDP growth in March at 1.6% compared to March of the previous year - against 4.3% in February. As a result, GDP growth in the first quarter was estimated at 3.7%. According to the Renaissance forecast, in 2022 Russian GDP will decrease by 8.2%.

The Ministry of Economic Development reported a slowdown in GDP growth in March Economics

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Nevertheless, in March versus February, seasonally adjusted retail turnover in the country decreased by about 2%, which was the largest decline since the pandemic April 2020, Renaissance Capital economists estimate. And the real disposable income of the population in the first quarter of 2022 decreased by 1.2% in annual terms. According to the Renaissance forecast, wages in Russia (accounting for more than 55% of cash income) in nominal terms will increase this year by 12–13%, which, with an average inflation of 17–18%, will reduce real wages by 5– 6%.

Against the background of the demographic aging of the population and the consequences of the covid-19 pandemic, the workforce in Russia continued to decline in March, which experts from the investment company call "one of the factors behind good unemployment numbers." However, they expect that the unemployment rate will still increase by the summer (do not say by how much). “The effectiveness of state support for the labor market will be a key factor in curbing the potential rise in unemployment,” they point out. Earlier, economists traditionally polled by the Bank of Russia estimated that unemployment would rise to 6.9% by the end of 2022, compared with an actual value of 4.3% in 2021.