Why does the EU need a defense strategy and what does it imply?

The European Union is finalizing its defense industrial strategy, the goal of which is to increase military purchases within the bloc. By 2025, the EU plans to independently produce more than 2 million shells annually. Read more in the RBC material

Amid ongoing hostilities in Ukraine , the EU is preparing to reform its defense policy. In March, the European Commission (EC) will present a new European Defense Industrial Strategy (EDIS). At today's meeting of the European Parliament on European security and defense, EC President Ursula von der Leyen promised to present a document in the coming weeks.

What does the new strategy involve?

The strategy has been prepared since 2023. Von der Leyen announced that the final version of EDIS will be presented in March on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, which took place on February 16–18. The HEAD of the EC named four main points of the strategy - spend more, spend smarter (increase joint purchases), spend “European” (invest European taxpayers’ money) and use the experience of the conflict in Ukraine to “outsmart RUSSIA on the battlefield.”

In an interview with the Financial Times, the head of the EC also stated the need to increase weapons production based on the experience of consolidating taxpayer funds for the production of vaccines against covid-19 and for joint purchases of gas.

The active stage of the EC's consultations on the creation of the strategy with the European External Action Service and the European Defense Agency began in October. According to a draft document seen by BLOOMBERG , by 2035 the EU will aim to make half of its defense purchases within the bloc, refusing to purchase most military equipment from third countries. it is noted that military actions in Ukraine revealed the limitations of EU industry and its dependence on other countries in the field of key supplies and defense potential.

The new strategy provides for joint investment by EU countries in this area of ​​the economy, ensuring the security of critical supplies and changes in the lending policy of the European Investment Bank. It is also proposed to implement the following initiatives:

• introduce a minimum level for joint defense procurement and curtail procurement of military systems from non-EU suppliers;
• create mechanisms by which it will be possible to immediately increase critical supplies in the event of a shortage or crisis, as well as quickly identify critical levels of dependence on third countries in this area;
• increase industry's access to EU funding and funding programs, and find new partners in the field of defense and security;
• identify flagship projects on which to focus efforts and resources.

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According to the EC's proposed strategy, the EU should be geared to mass production of defense products such as ammunition and drones. In addition, the text of the document notes that EU member states also face hybrid threats, including cyber attacks, sabotage and hacking of critical infrastructure. Europe must protect its access to the maritime, air, cyber and space domains, the document calls. If the EU wants to move from emergency response to preparedness, its members will need to emphasize joint investment and procurement rather than relying on third countries.

To achieve these goals, the EC proposes first of all to create a new body for coordinating investments - the Defense Industrial Readiness Council - to improve cooperation between member states and the EC, as well as monitoring critical supply chains. Priority projects include initiatives such as the European Cyber ​​Shield, the Integrated European Air and Missile Defense System (IMLAMD), the development of devices that will allow the unit to detect, analyze and respond to threats in space, as well as the protection of critical infrastructure. In addition, it is proposed to develop a European Arms Program - a legal document that will help standardize and simplify the procurement procedure, as well as provide financing incentives (including tax exemptions and the use of EU grants as collateral for bond issues). Finally, it is recommended to expand cooperation with NATO and develop closer ties with Ukraine in the defense-industrial sector, including exploring the possibility of involving Kyiv in joint procurement activities.

“Geopolitical developments highlight the urgent need for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security and be prepared to effectively counter the full range of threats it faces,” the document says.

The EC initially planned to present a new defense industry strategy in November 2023, but some countries of the union were skeptical about this idea. As Euractiv noted, questions have been raised about the effectiveness of the strategy in the absence of significant funds for its implementation and financial incentives for member states to work on joint procurement. In addition, the EC had not yet proposed a regulatory framework that would guarantee the security of supplies of defense products.

Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton, who is responsible for the EU's defense industry, said in January that the union would need €100 billion for EDIS, but the bloc did not have such resources in its budget. In this regard, Brussels hopes to involve the European Investment Bank in financing, which has so far been reluctant to participate in this.

Ursula von der Leyen proposed at a plenary meeting of the European Parliament on February 28 to use income from frozen Russian assets to purchase military equipment for Ukraine. “There cannot be a stronger symbol and greater benefit from this money than making Ukraine and the whole of Europe a safe place to live,” said the head of the EC.

As part of the innovations, the union also proposes to establish the post of European Commissioner for Defense, whose tasks will include coordinating the build-up of the EU defense industry.

What is the EU preparing for?

On the one hand, the need for a united Europe to increase defense production is explained by the situation of Ukraine, for which the EU considers the provision of military assistance an obligation. In the spring of 2023, Brussels announced the transfer of 1 million shells to Kyiv within a year. However, as Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky recently stated , not even 50%, but 30% of the promised volume came to the country.

Bloomberg reported that EU countries decided to purchase $1.5 billion worth of shells for Ukraine. As the publication notes, at a meeting in Paris on February 26, Western leaders agreed to purchase them from third countries. According to von der Leyen, the EU's new plans for the defense industry will double the production of projectiles - by the end of 2025, the EU will be able to independently produce more than 2 million pieces annually.

The EU's new defense strategy comes as European leaders raise concerns about the possibility of hostilities spreading into NATO countries. At the plenary meeting of the European Parliament on February 28, the head of the EC noted that Europe has begun to realize the scale of the problem and needs to act quickly. “The threat of war may not be immediate, but it should not be ruled out as impossible. The risks of war should not be exaggerated, but we should be prepared for them,” she added.

Since the start of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, the EU has already created several instruments and funds to reform its defense-industrial policy. In July 2022, the European Commission presented a proposal for “Strengthening the European Defense Industry through a Common Procurement Law” (EDIRPA) as an urgent solution to the problem of how to replenish EU countries' stockpiles after they donated large sums to Kyiv. It is about deepening cooperation between EU members on procurement to fill the most critical gaps. According to EDIRPA, EU member states are entitled to partial reimbursement of costs if they make joint purchases with at least two other member states. At first it was planned to create a fund of €500 million for this purpose, but the EDIRPA budget finally agreed in June 2023 is €300 million.

In March 2023, the EC also introduced the Ammunition Support Act (ASAP), which aims to support missile manufacturers. It was proposed as a "direct response" to the EU Council's call for urgent supplies of ammunition and, if necessary, missiles to Ukraine, and to help member states replenish their stockpiles by introducing targeted measures.

ASAP includes a mechanism to analyze weaknesses in supply chains, instruments to financially support EU production capacity and the introduction of a temporary regulatory framework to address ammunition supply problems. In July 2023, it was decided to allocate €500 million from the EU budget for ASAP.

However, as Euractiv notes, these programs were aimed primarily at solving immediate problems arising from the hostilities in Ukraine, but did not take into account the need to increase its own defense production capabilities. Meanwhile, the EU and NATO warned that the military action in Ukraine was turning into a war of attrition in which production would play a key role.

In the long term, the EU's new defense industrial strategy aims to ensure that defense factories are ready in the event of another conflict, even if there is no longer a need to supply Ukraine and replenish European stockpiles.

The head of the sector of military-political analysis and research projects of the Center for International Security at IMEMO RAS, Sergei Oznobishchev, notes that in connection with the new military-political situation, incentives to expand military production have arisen in all European countries. “Since the 1980s of the last century, everyone has ruled out the possibility of military action in the center of Europe, arguing that a reliable system of collective security has been built. The conflict in Ukraine has become one of the factors that naturally revives these discussions,” the expert explained to RBC.

The revival of military production in Europe indicates that the overall results of disarmament policy are being destroyed. “Nevertheless, at some foreseeable moment the deadlock of this approach will become clear, and we will have to return to the need for joint mutual arms limitation, including in Europe, in accordance with new treaties,” he predicts.

Russia condemns Western military aid to Ukraine. Moscow has repeatedly stated that this will not interfere with achieving the goals of the military operation, but will only prolong the conflict.