How severe will the global recession be. And will it come at all

Recently, investors have reason to be optimistic. Shares of European companies have been growing since the beginning of October. There are those who foresee the end of the energy crisis soon. Chinese stocks jumped on news of Xi Jinping's possible abandonment of the "zero tolerance" policy for covid-19 and increased financial support for the real estate sector. On November 10, after it became known that consumer inflation in the US was slightly below expectations, the NASDAQ index of high-tech companies rose intraday by a record 7%: investors were pawned in a slowdown in the key rate increase.

But if we are not too quick to draw conclusions, we must admit that in recent weeks the outlook for the global economy has only darkened. The economy is slowing down and is likely to fall into recession. And the central banks, meanwhile, are trying to overcome unprecedented inflation. And even though the monthly data on this indicator in the US turned out to be better than expected, there is no evidence of any general decrease in inflation. On the contrary, it is accelerating almost all over the world.

Throughout most of 2022, talk of an impending economic downturn did not subside. In June, the number of searches on GOOGLE for the word "recession" approached an all-time high. For a long time, however, observers exaggerated too much. On average, output in rich countries increased by about 1.3% between the end of 2021 and the third quarter of this year. It's not impressive growth, but it's not bad either. Since the beginning of this year, the average unemployment rate in the OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. - ), which includes mainly rich countries, which account for about 60% of global GDP, has fallen by almost a percent. In the Eurozone, unemployment has reached historic lows. Consumption is high; hotels, planes and restaurants all over the world are overcrowded.

However, now the reality is more and more in line with the sad forecasts.