SberCIB expert predicts dollar strengthening to ₽73 by the end of the year

Economist Anton Struchenevsky also admitted thatthat, taking into account high prices for raw materials, the national currency may rise in price to ₽60 by the end of the second quarter usd/Ruble USD/RUB₽61,845 -2,52% Buy Euro/Ruble EUR/RUB₽64,113 -3,88% Buy

According to the chief economist of SberCIB Investment Research Anton Struchenevsky, the average DOLLAR exchange rate against the Russian currency in 2022 will rise above ₽70 and amount to ₽73. This is stated in the forecast of the chief economist of the investment bank, which was reviewed by RBC Investments   .

“The strengthening of the ruble was the result of such factors as a significant inflow of hard currency from exports against the backdrop of high energy prices, a drop in imports due to sanctions and logistical problems, and continued restrictions on the movement of capital. However, imports are likely to start recovering, and the Central Bank may ease capital controls, we forecast the average ruble/dollar exchange rate at ₽73 this year,” the SberCIB expert said. The economist believes that, given the high prices for raw materials, the national currency may rise in price to ₽60 per dollar and, possibly, even overcome this level before the end of the second quarter.

Dollar/Ruble USD/RUB ₽61.845 (-2.52%) 1d 1d 1m 3m 1y All time Chart...

Photo: Chung Sung-Jun / Getty Images

According to the Bank of RUSSIA, the current account surplus of the country's balance of payments in the first quarter increased by 3.5 times compared to the same period in 2021 and reached a record $95.8 billion. For comparison, a year earlier this figure was $27.5 billion. The current level , as BLOOMBERG previously noted, was the highest since 1994.

According to Struchenevsky, the current account surplus has grown since February due to reduced imports, soaring commodity prices and lower dividend payments. The positive balance for the first quarter of the year was at $58.2 billion, but in April it reached $37.6 billion, which was a record monthly figure in the history of the country, he said.

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On Thursday, May 19, presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin said that the strengthening of the ruble was consistent with a strong balance of payments and that the national currency exchange rate was "absolutely market" in contrast to last year, when it was "artificial". Earlier, Wells Fargo Securities currency strategist Brendan McKenna, in an interview with Bloomberg, noted that without taking into account the measures taken by the Russian authorities, the US currency would have been at the level of ₽180 and called the current strengthening of the ruble artificial.

In March, the dollar soared above ₽120, having updated its historical maximum at ₽121.52. But after that, the rally was a reversal, and the Russian currency, on the contrary, strengthened by almost 50% against the US dollar . In trading on Thursday, May 19, the US currency fell below ₽62 for the first time since January 24, 2020. Since the beginning of the year, the ruble has grown by about 23% against the European currency.

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