Brazil's pork market: production growth slows, but export boom continues

Consumption

Pork is Brazil’s third-most-preferred protein after chicken and beef. The USDA forecasts domestic consumption to decline 1% in 2024 due to firm prices, although demand is expected to pick up later in the year due to seasonal events such as barbecue season and the Christmas and New Year holidays. Brazilian consumption is expected to rebound by 2% to 3.07 million tonnes (CWE) in 2025 following stronger economic signals in recent months.

Trade

Brazil's total pork exports (including offal) increased by 5% (53,000 tons) year-to-date (Jan-Sept) compared to 2023, reaching 1.05 million tons. This is the highest volume of pork exported by Brazil in history.

Brazil’s top EXPORT destinations are CHINA , the Philippines, Chile, Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore. Volumes to China and Hong Kong declined year-on-year, but rose in all other major destinations. While China remains the largest destination for Brazilian pork exports, volumes fell 42% (131,000 tonnes) in 2024. The volume decline for Hong Kong was smaller, but still significant, at 13% (12,000 tonnes). Shipments to the Philippines, however, jumped 68,000 tonnes (79%). Chile replaced Hong Kong as the third-largest destination, with volume increasing by 19,000 tonnes in 2024. Japan also moved up the rankings, overtaking Singapore with a volume gain of 38,000 tonnes. Singapore recorded the smallest change among all major trading partners, increasing by 17,100 tonnes.

Current trends are expected to continue through the end of the year, with potential to continue into 2025. Brazil is benefiting from price competitiveness, outperforming some key European countries in Asian markets. Despite declining demand for pork imports from China , Brazil may have the opportunity to further increase its market share depending on the outcome of China’s anti-dumping investigation into European products. Markets in the wider Southeast Asian region are likely to remain profitable with strong demand and limited production capacity due to ongoing disease outbreaks. Brazil recently received approval from Malaysia to export pork and offal.

Global markets are expected to strengthen on seasonal demand as Christmas approaches. However, many of the current geopolitical issues will spill over intonew year , such as the conflict in the Middle East and possible changes in trade policy by the new US government.