EU: Pork Market Year in Review and Forecast for 2025

In the third quarter of 2024 , the EU agricultural trade surplus increased by 15%, reaching €6 billion. However, exports to CHINA fell, particularly for pork, cereals and dairy products. The EU pig industry is expected to face potential problems if China imposes restrictions on imports from the region, which could lead to lower prices and reduced profitability for EU exporters.

Rabobank expects EU and UK pork prices could rise in 2025, driven by factors including herd reductions in countries such as the Netherlands, where prices are expected to fall by 10-15% due to government buyback schemes.  

EU pork production is expected to decline by 0.5% in 2024 compared to 2023. A further decline of 0.2% is expected in 2025, indicating stabilisation after larger reductions in previous years.

Per capita pork consumption in the EU is projected to stabilise at around 30.9 kg in 2025 after declining by 0.4% year-on-year in 2024.

EU pork exports are forecast to decline by 2.5% to 2.93 million tonnes this year due to strong competition from countries such as Brazil and the United States , particularly in high-value markets such as Japan and Australia . A further moderate decline of 2.0% to 2.87 million tonnes is expected in 2025. High EU pork prices are hampering global EXPORT competitiveness, impacting sales in key markets.

 Although specific price forecasts for 2025 are not detailed, expected production declines and export challenges may impact market prices. In summary, the EU pork market in 2025 is expected to experience a slight decline in production and exports, with consumption stabilising. Current challenges, including disease risks and trade uncertainty, may impact market dynamics.