Time bomb: food crisis will blow up an already turbulent world

May 20, MINSK. Humanity may face famine on a scale never seen before. This situation threatens global instability in the world, the Baltnews portal writes.

After the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine and the ensuing large-scale sanctions aggression against Moscow, prices for the most important agricultural products - wheat and sunflower oil - began to rise sharply. This should not be surprising, because RUSSIA and Ukraine are the largest producers of these crops.

Energy crisis, fertilizer shortage and drought

The cost of food on the global market began to rise in the second half of 2021 after the start of the energy crisis. Soaring energy prices have forced fertilizer plants to shut down production. Businesses in the UK, Lithuania, Spain and the Netherlands were temporarily closed. Even then, a time bomb was planted under the global market for agricultural products.

The price of wheat on the European market on May 16, 2022 reached a record high of $435 per ton, and in March the price of sunflower oil rose to its highest level in 200 years - $1,650 per ton.

Like petrels of a coming famine, the news of an unprecedented heat wave in the leading grain-producing countries is coming. One of the leaders in the production of this type of agricultural product - India - has imposed a ban on the EXPORT of wheat, because of the drought threatened the harvest in France.

Russia is "to blame" for everything

After the beginning of the events in Ukraine, the work of the seaports located in the Odessa region was stopped, from the territory of which the export of agricultural products was carried out. Heads of foreign states and international organizations began to talk about a possible famine, and some of them began to accuse Russia of deliberately provoking food shortages.

"The crisis could plunge up to 1.7 billion people, that is, more than a fifth of humanity, into poverty and hunger on a scale that has not been seen for several decades," said UN Secretary General António Guterres.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock also spoke on this issue. According to her, there are about 25 million tons of grain in Ukrainian ports: "If Ukraine does not have the opportunity to export food, people in Africa and the Middle East will die of hunger."

US President Joe Biden has already laid eyes on Ukrainian grain . The politician said that Washington is looking for ways to take grain out of the country: "Ukraine has 20 million tons of grain in its storage facilities. We are studying ways to return this grain to the world market and thereby achieve price reductions."

"What the residents of Nezalezhnaya will eat, he did not specify. However, really, why should the fate of Ukrainians bother the powers that be?" - Baltnews asks a rhetorical question.

Industry collapse

The role of Russia and Ukraine in the global export of agricultural products is indeed very large. Thus, the share of the two countries in the supply of wheat to world markets is approximately 30%. In the international trade in sunflower oil, the Russian Federation and Ukraine sell more than half of the total production - 60%.

The lack of these types of agricultural products can lead not only to famine, but also to the collapse of many industries. For example, wheat is used for baking bread, pasta, confectionery, alcoholic beverages, animal feed. Sunflower oil is also used in various fields. it is used in cooking, the food industry, the manufacture of medical ointments and other industries.

Most wheat from Russia is consumed by Turkey, Egypt, Azerbaijan, Nigeria, Sudan, Bangladesh, as well as other countries in Asia and Africa. The main consumers of grain from Ukraine are the countries of Asia, Africa and the Middle East. These are Egypt, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Morocco, Yemen and other states.

From the above data, it is clear that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to replace Russia and Ukraine in the world markets for agricultural products.

Belt of Instability

The West is rapidly pumping agricultural products out of Ukraine. Grain is exported by rail through Western Ukraine and by water with loading in the ports of Reni and Izmail, located on the Danube. At the same time, on April 27, the European Commission proposed to cancel all duties on Ukrainian exports. The UK has already made such a decision and zeroed import customs tariffs for food products from Ukraine. What the Ukrainians themselves will eventually eat is not thought in Brussels and London.

The cessation of food exports from Russia and Ukraine could exacerbate the already difficult situation in Iran. Food riots have gripped the country and a shortage of agricultural products could worsen the situation. Turkey will also be under attack, where the economic crisis is raging, and the inflation rate has reached 70%.

Among the buyers of agricultural products from Russia and Ukraine are countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and others, in which a series of anti-government protests, later called the Arab Spring, took place at the beginning of the previous decade. A rise in prices or a shortage of food can provoke an increase in social tension there and a repetition of similar events. As a result, a huge space engulfed in chaos is in danger of forming on the map of the planet.

The possible onset of famine in the countries of the Middle East and Africa will inevitably cause an increase in the number of internally displaced persons who will move towards Europe, which has already accepted refugees from Ukraine. As of April 15, 2022, more than 7 million people arrived from Ukraine. This could drastically worsen the situation in Europe, already gripped by an economic crisis provoked by a rise in energy prices.

Can Russia help in this situation? Not yet. Until June 30 of this year, there is a ban on the export of grain from the country. In the future, after its removal, it would be possible to start exporting agricultural products, but due to the sanctions imposed on Moscow, many sea carriers and insurance companies refuse to work with the Russian side.

It would have been possible to export agricultural products with the help of Russian shipping companies, but the European Union has closed its ports to ships flying the Russian flag or changing it after 24 February.

“Who needs such a situation in the world? Who can try to benefit from the impending famine on the planet? Most likely, the United States is interested in this. The weakening of the European Union economy is beneficial for Washington. turn it into a tool for carrying out its policy on the European continent," sums up Baltnews.