USDA Updated Pig Production Estimates in 2023

Map 1. Estimated concentration of global pork production in 2023, based on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

Pork production in the European Union is forecast to be 3% lower compared to the previous year. Tighter environmental regulations and lower profit margins for producers due to higher raw material costs are likely to continue to hold back production. Exports from the EU are forecast to fall by 10% due to lower exports to CHINA , Japan and SOUTH KOREA as EU pork loses price competitiveness due to increased raw material costs.

Viet Nam's production is projected to increase by 6% thanks to investment in industry and the ongoing recovery from the effects of African swine fever (ASF).

Brazilian production is projected to rise 2% year on year as domestic demand and EXPORT opportunities remain strong thanks to competitive prices.

Chinese production is expected to pick up marginally as consumer demand remains robust.

Shipments to CANADA are forecast to fall 4% year-on-year in 2023. The closure of slaughterhouses and relatively high feed prices are expected to put pressure on Canadian pork production, reducing available export supplies.

Exports from China are projected to rise as easing of border controls in Japan and Hong Kong is expected to stimulate demand from the hotel, restaurant and institutional sectors for processed pork products from China.

U.S. pork production is forecast to increase 1% year on year as the relatively strong first quarter slaughter growth slows throughout the year. US exports are projected to increase slightly in 2023 with slight increases to China, Japan and South Korea due to increased US competitiveness and reduced exports from the European Union.

Chart 1. Updated forecasts of global pig production results in 2023. 

Global pork production is expected to reach 114.3 million tons in 2023, down 0.2% from 114.6 million tons in 2022. Global exports are projected to fall by 0.1% compared to 2022, from 9.89 million tons to 9.88 million tons. The volume of imports is expected to reach 10.6 million tons in 2023, representing a decrease of 3.4% from the previous year (11.0 million tons).

Apparent consumption is expected to grow by 0.2%, from 113.4 to 113.7 million tons.

Forecasts by continent

Latin America is expected to see the highest regional growth, with production reaching 8.08 Mt, representing a 2.4% increase from 2022 (7.89 Mt). Similarly, exports are expected to rise by 3.3% to 1.89 million tonnes, while imports are forecast to fall by 0.3% and apparent consumption will increase by 1.5%.

Production in Asia is expected to increase by 0.5% to 63.4 million tons, supported by increased domestic supplies from China and Vietnam. On the other hand, imports are forecast to increase by 0.1% to 5.7 million tons.

Overall, across the Americas, production is expected to increase by 1.2% to 22.5 million tonnes. However, imports are expected to decline by 4.3% to 2.69 million tons, while exports are expected to rise by 0.4% to 6.14 million tons.

it is expected that production on the European continent will decrease by 2.9% to 27.5 million tons. Similarly, exports are expected to decline by 9.2% to 4.2 million tons.

Africa is expected to increase its production by 3.2% to 0.5 million tonnes, while Oceania is expected to contract by 2.3% and reach production very close to Africa's.