The authorities are considering three options for a response mechanism to the introduction by the G7 countries and the European Union of a price ceiling on Russian oil imports, a draft presidential decree is being discussed by his administration with the government. This is reported by Vedomosti with reference to two sources close to the Cabinet of Ministers.
The proposed options include:
a complete ban on the sale of oil to states that supported the restriction, including if they purchase raw materials from RUSSIA not directly, but through intermediary countries or even their chain; a ban on exports under contracts that include a price ceiling condition, regardless of which country is the recipient; the introduction of the so-called indicative price, that is, the determination of the maximum discount for Russian EXPORT oil Urals to the reference grade Brent, with an increase in the discount, sales will be prohibited.video
According to one of the interlocutors of Vedomosti, at the moment none of these options has been approved, other alternatives or their combinations are possible. The issue was to be discussed at a meeting of President Vladimir Putin with oil workers on December 6, the source said.
Another source told the newspaper that the alternative of fixing the discount was the least likely of the three options.
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As Yevgeny Mironyuk, an expert on the stock market at BCS Mir Investments, pointed out to Vedomosti, there is nothing new in the first and second versions of Russia's answer. According to him, the adoption of such decisions formalizes earlier statements by government officials about refusing to supply raw materials to countries that agreed to the terms of the price ceiling. The third option, with a ban on supplies below the indicative price for all buyers of Russian oil, is likely to be abandoned, the expert suggested.
At the same time, Mironyuk did not rule out that in the foreseeable future, the price ceiling at $60 would mean maintaining or even increasing the volume of supplies from Russia, and if it were lowered, Brent quotations could return to the range of $90-100 per barrel.
According to Alfa-Bank senior analyst Nikita Blokhin, the second option seems to be the most realistic. He pointed out that, as representatives of the authorities have repeatedly stated, Russia will only be satisfied with market prices, that is, the levels at which Russian oil is currently sold. The expert believes that we can talk about both the relevant presidential decree and the unspoken directive that will be given to companies through the presidential commission on the fuel and energy complex.
BLOOMBERG learned about Russia's possible response to the oil price ceiling Politics
In early December, the EU, the G7 countries and Australia agreed on a ceiling on the price of Russian crude oil shipped by sea of $60 per barrel. The restrictions were introduced in order to reduce Moscow's income and affect its ability to finance a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. Russia has previously repeatedly stated that it will not accept this restriction.
Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov confirmed on December 5 that Moscow is preparing a decision on retaliatory measures to introduce a ceiling on oil prices. According to him, Russia will not recognize such restrictions. Peskov called the oil price ceiling "a step towards destabilizing global energy markets."
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that after the introduction of the ceiling on oil prices, Moscow uses new tools and new supply insurance schemes in trade. Traders and supply chains will also change.
According to the Russian Ministry of Finance, the average price of the Russian export brand of Urals oil in November was $66.47 per barrel. At the same time, Bloomberg reported on November 28 that the price of Urals dropped below $52 per barrel.
In addition, according to the agency, the average freight rate of a ship for the supply of Russian oil from the Baltic Sea to India after the introduction of the price ceiling may increase from $9-11.5 million to $15 million ($20 per barrel). Brokers attribute this to the fact that some of the largest owners of tankers in Greece will stop transporting raw materials from Russia.