Rosstat estimated the scale of the economic downturn in the third quarter

In the third quarter of 2022, the Russian economy shrank by 4% compared to last year, Rosstat said. The main contribution to the negative result was made by wholesale trade,

Real GDP of RUSSIA in the third quarter of 2022, according to preliminary estimates, decreased by 4% compared to the same period of the previous year, Rosstat reported on November 16. Rosstat has not yet disclosed the dynamics of GDP relative to the previous quarter. The assessment is based on operational reporting of large and medium-sized enterprises in the non-financial sector of the economy.

In the second quarter compared to the same period a year ago, GDP fell by 4.1% (in the first quarter there was an increase of 3.5%).

The assessment of the economy by Rosstat in July-September turned out to be better than the assessment of the Ministry of Economic Development (minus 4.4%), published in early November (.pdf). The Ministry of Economy believes that at the end of the year, GDP will decrease by 2.9%, the Bank of Russia in its November report on monetary policy expected a reduction of 3-3.5%.

When calculating the Rosstat estimate for the third quarter, industry statistics were used, which, in particular, showed:

decline in wholesale trade by 22.6% by the third quarter of 2021; decline in the retail turnover sector by 9.1%; drop in cargo turnover by 5.5%; decline in manufacturing by 2%.

At the same time, the gross value added in the sectors of agriculture grew by 6.2% and construction by 6.7%.

The decline in wholesale trade primarily reflects the decline in natural gas trade (in the third quarter, solid, liquid and gaseous fuels accounted for about a third of all wholesale trade volumes, according to Rosstat). According to the NKR rating agency, the revenue of Russian gas producing companies in official statistics is taken into account precisely by the type of activity “wholesale trade”, and not “ oil and natural gas production”. “It is in this sector that the bulk of the gross value added of the gas industry sits (gas trade accounts for more than its production - this contradicts the economic sense, but our statistics are arranged this way),” noted the author of the MMI TELEGRAM channel, an economist at the bank. Centrocredit" Evgeny Suvorov.

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