Why life expectancy in Russia has returned to pre-Covid levels

The Minister of HEALTH reported an increase in life expectancy in RUSSIA to 73.4 years, which exceeded the pre-pandemic level. RBC figured out what the minister had in mind and what are the further forecasts

“Life expectancy has now exceeded the pre-pandemic period of 73.4 years,” Health Minister Mikhail Murashko said on June 29 at a meeting in the State Duma. In 2022, the indicator showed a record increase - 2.7 years (to a level of almost 72.8), RBC wrote. Based on the words of Murashko, life expectancy (LE) at birth has updated the record in the history of Russia, since the previous maximum was reached in the pre-COVID 2019 (73.34).

What indicator did the minister use

Murashko was guided by the operational indicator of life expectancy, which since 2022 has been calculated by Rosstat on a monthly basis . Prior to this, the statistical service published only the indicator of life expectancy at the end of the calendar year. At the end of April 2023, life expectancy reached 73.37 years, at the end of May it was 73.36 years (with rounding - 73.4), follows from Rosstat data.

The monthly calculation procedure was approved by Rosstat in November 2020 amid the second wave of the CORONAVIRUS pandemic. The purpose of the new calculation was an operational analysis of the achievement of the target "Increase in life expectancy to 78 years" by 2030. Such a benchmark was set out in the July 2020 Presidential Decree on National Development Goals. It was originally planned that the target of 78 years would be reached by 2024, but after the start of the pandemic, its achievement was pushed back in time.

“The monthly calculation of life expectancy shows life expectancy not for the corresponding month, but for the previous 12 months, that is, in fact, it is a sliding annual life expectancy based on operational data,” Gaidar Institute researcher Igor Efremov explained to RBC. At the same time, Rosstat continues to separately calculate the indicator of life expectancy for the past year. So, now there is a preliminary estimate of life expectancy for 2022:

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What is meant by life expectancy

Life expectancy at birth is the number of years that, on average, a person born in a given year would have to live (in 2022, if we are talking about the indicator at the end of the calendar year. -), provided that throughout his life generation, the mortality rate at each age will remain the same as in the year for which the indicator was calculated, follows from the methodological explanations of Rosstat.

The initial series of indicators for calculating life expectancy is age-specific mortality rates, that is, the number of deaths at a given age divided by the average population at this age, demographers explained to RBC. The word “expected” in the name of the indicator does not at all mean its predictive nature - in fact, this is a generalized estimate of mortality in the reporting year (in reality, age-specific mortality rates change over time).

Can we say that the indicator has updated the record

When comparing the monthly figures for 2023 with the annual figure for 2019, “some error arises, since the covid-19 pandemic in Russia began to affect mortality only from April 2020,” Efremov notes. “Although there are no published monthly estimates of the life expectancy dynamics for that period, based on the previous life expectancy dynamics, it is possible to approximately estimate the life expectancy immediately before the start of the pandemic in Russia at 73.4–73.5 years,” the expert says.

In addition, the monthly indicators in 2023 are calculated taking into account the results of the All-Russian Population Census, which was conducted in October-November 2021, and for 2019 the indicator was calculated without taking it into account, with a smaller population, the HEAD of the international laboratory for population studies draws attention and Health of the National Research University Higher School of Economics Evgeny Andreev (this is confirmed by the explanations of Rosstat). As a result of the census, the population of Russia turned out to be about 1.5 million people more. Since, when calculating life expectancy, the number of deaths is divided by the population in the corresponding group, the mortality rate with an increased denominator will be lower, and life expectancy, respectively, will be higher. “If we take into account [backdating] the census data in previous estimates, it is likely that life expectancy in 2019 will increase slightly: we can expect that it will be some one-tenth higher,”

Monthly data is very opportunistic, the expert continues. “In the winter months, mortality is significantly higher than in the summer. It depends on the weather, on the epidemic situation (regardless of the coronavirus infection, since the flu also raises the death rate). It is difficult to seriously focus on monthly data, they are considered very approximately. They are evaluative in nature, and they often have an error not only at the level of hundredths, but also tenths, ”Andreev points out.

These factors indicate that “life expectancy at birth in Russia has probably come close to the pre-pandemic level, but still has not overcome it,” Efremov summarizes.

The monthly indicator is published by Rosstat without a breakdown by gender. “The specifics of the underreporting of male mortality currently suggests that the life expectancy of women in Russia has exceeded the pre-pandemic level, while the life expectancy of men has not. This is also confirmed by the dynamics of the recovery of life expectancy in 2022, reflected in the annual data: in them, the growth in life expectancy for women turned out to be significantly greater than the growth in life expectancy for men,” explains Efremov.

The gap in life expectancy between women and men in Russia (more than ten years) is traditionally one of the highest in the world. There are three times more women centenarians (90 years and more) in Russia than men centenarians, RBC wrote with reference to a study in which such a disproportion was explained by “low resistance [of men in Russia] to socio-economic upheavals, indifferent attitude to their own health, the greater prevalence of asocial phenomena in the male environment.

Both monthly operational estimates and the indicator of life expectancy for 2022 are given without taking into account statistical information for the Donetsk People's Republic, Lugansk People's Republic, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, Rosstat indicates.

Why life expectancy is back on the rise

During the pandemic years of 2020-2021, life expectancy at birth decreased by almost 3.3 years against the background of the so-called excess mortality due to COVID-19, although before that the indicator had been growing annually since 2003.

“The return of life expectancy to indicators close to pre-pandemic occurred primarily due to the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, which made a decisive contribution to the decline in life expectancy in Russia in 2020–2021 and also affected life expectancy in 2022,” says Efremov .

At the end of 2022, against the background of the receding pandemic, the total number of deaths in Russia decreased by 22.2% by 2021 (to 1.9 million people), the final data of Rosstat, published on June 23, showed. At the same time, registry offices still registered 139 thousand deaths from coronavirus infection (against 465.5 thousand in 2021).

Rosstat does not disclose the number of those who died as a result of hostilities in Ukraine . The Ministry of Defense last reported on total Russian losses during a special military operation in September 2022. Then Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke about 5,937 dead since the beginning of the military operation.

What are the prospects for the indicator

As for the forecast for life expectancy for 2023, it is too early to extrapolate monthly trends for the whole year, Alexander Shcherbakov, professor at the Department of Labor and Social Policy of the RANEPA, told RBC. “Monthly data cannot be a reliable basis for projections,” he said.

One of the most important reasons for the increase in life expectancy since the 2000s was intergenerational changes in the way of life and health of Russians, Efremov emphasizes. “Younger generations of Russians are leading a healthier lifestyle than older generations have had in the past. Accordingly, with the natural change of generations, there is a gradual process of promoting reduced mortality to older ages and an increase in life expectancy at these ages,” he explains, adding that this large process “probably continued even against the backdrop of a pandemic.”

“On the one hand, the preservation of this intergenerational progress gives reason to hope that life expectancy will continue to grow further. On the other hand, since the beginning of the pandemic, according to some data, progress has stopped in reducing ALCOHOL consumption and the prevalence of smoking, which has made a huge contribution to the growth of life expectancy in recent years. An increase in alcohol and tobacco consumption can significantly slow down the growth of life expectancy in Russia, as has happened many times in the past, ”Efremov argues. In 2022, it was not possible to reduce sales of cigarettes and alcohol as planned, the Accounts Chamber stated on June 27.

An increase in life expectancy to 78 years by 2030 is possible “with an extremely successful coincidence of many factors”, among which the expert lists:

a multiple increase in the financing of the healthcare system (including the growth of both the availability and quality of medical care, the expansion of free drug provision); fast, effective and very significant tightening of the tax and regulatory policy of the state in relation to the main factors of preventable death - strong alcohol and tobacco (as well as unhealthy foods); ensuring income growth, reducing poverty and inequality.

Conditions and opportunities to achieve the target of 78 years by 2030 have become more difficult, confirms Shcherbakov. “Relative to the time when this goal was set, there were too many unpredictable events. Therefore, a revision of the value and projections may be required. However, this year the socio-economic situation has begun to stabilize, and in seven years, positive changes in demography and social well-being can theoretically occur, ”the expert emphasizes.

RBC sent a request to the office of Deputy Prime Minister Tatyana Golikova (he was redirected to the Ministry of Health ), the Ministry of Health, Rosstat, and also to the Ministry of Economic Development.