US beef production will decline due to a decline in Mexican steer herds.

Mexico exports calves to the US due to a shortage of pastures and feedlots. Furthermore, the US advantage in feed availability plays a role. Calves are typically shipped after separation from their mothers. They go directly to feedlots in the US.

Beef production in the United States

However, the situation has changed. The US Department of Agriculture has restricted livestock imports for health reasons. Effective November 22, 2024 , the import of cattle and bison from Mexico has been restricted. This occurred after the New World screwworm (NWW) was detected in Chiapas. 

Although imports resumed on February 1, 2025, under the new protocol, the flow of bulls declined. It took six weeks to reach only 68% of the previous year's weekly volume.

Then, on May 11, 2025, imports of live cattle , horses and bison were again suspended due to new GBN results in southern Mexico.

As a result, the USDA estimates that U.S. beef production will decline by 5% in 2026. Exports will also decline, projected to reach 2.495 billion pounds, down 6% from the previous year. This represents less than 10% of total production, down from 10% in 2025 and an average of 12% from 2020 to 2024.

In this context, tight supplies, high domestic prices and competition from Oceania continue to limit the expansion of US beef exports.

Projection

U.S. beef production will continue to decline in 2026. The USDA projects production at 25.14 billion pounds, down 5% from 2025.

This will be the fourth consecutive annual decline after the record set in 2022. The low production is due to several factors, including lower calf availability expected in 2025 and a higher number of heifers retained for breeding.

Furthermore, the decline in live cattle imports is also a factor. These factors will lead to a reduction in the number of animals placed in feedlots in late 2025 and early 2026.