Prospects for French pig production in 2024

This supply constraint, both in France and the EU , is likely to contribute to some price stability. In any case, CHINA , which has long been a price driver in the pork market, no longer appears capable of playing that role in 2024 . Chinese production is developing, leading to an increasing reduction in the country's imports. In addition, Spain, Brazil and the usa (the latter two countries with extremely competitive prices) have firmly established themselves in this highly competitive market.

France's EXPORT potential tends to be limited in proportion to the decline in production. Domestic consumption is also traditionally seen as a natural outlet for French production, with exports often seen only as a way of releasing surpluses. Even under favorable conditions, export volumes tend to “peak” very quickly, as we saw in 2020-21.

Declining pig production will continue to put pressure on the slaughter/cut-up sector, which could lead to further restructuring. If pork prices persist, they also risk continued pressure on the processing sector.