Lunar New Year falls short of Chinese meat sellers' expectations

Butchers at the Xinfadi Wholesale Food Market, Beijing's largest, slouch on stools behind counters piled high with MEAT, occasionally looking up from videos on their smartphones to call out to a few shoppers idly passing under the market's Lunar New Year decorations. "Last year at this time, this place was so packed you couldn't move," said a pork seller named Lee, who used to sell 20 pigs a day in the run-up to the holidays but is selling only five this year.

The eve of the Lunar New Year should be the busiest time of the year for traders at Xinfadi market, but sluggish sales reflect the deep malaise gripping China's economy, the world's second-largest. This year, consumers are tightening their belts amid uncertain job prospects, especially for young people, a falling stock market and declining property values.

CHINA is struggling to ensure a strong recovery from the covid pandemic , with weak consumer and business confidence, rising government debt and slowing global growth weighing on jobs, activity and investment . 

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that China's economic growth will slow to 4.6% in 2024 from 5.2% in 2023 and continue to decline over the medium term.

Declining meat consumption is a symptom of the economic downturn. Shanghai-based agricultural consultancy JCI forecasts that China's pork consumption will be between 53 and 54 million tonnes in 2023, below the 10-year average of 54 and 55 million tonnes.

Pork consumption in 2024 is likely to remain at or below 54 million tons. As a result, China's meat import volumes will experience downward pressure.

According to the USDA , China's pork and chicken consumption will decline 2.5% in 2024 compared to last year, while beef and veal consumption will rise 1.6%.