Rosstat Confirms Russian GDP Growth Estimate for Q1 at 5.4%

The absolute volume of GDP at current prices in the 1st quarter of 2024 amounted to 43 trillion 240 billion rubles, the deflator index amounted to 113.4% compared to the 1st quarter of 2023.

As reported, the Russian Federation's GDP grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the 4th quarter of 2023, grew by 5.7% in the 3rd quarter of 2023, grew by 5.1% in the 2nd quarter of 2023, and decreased by 1.6% in the 1st quarter of 2023. Overall, the Russian Federation's GDP grew by 3.6% in 2023.

The growth of GDP in the first quarter of 2024 was most influenced by the growth in the physical volume of gross value added in the following sectors: information and communications - by 15.3%, wholesale and retail trade - by 11.4%, manufacturing - by 9.0%, construction - by 4.8%.

In addition, the GDP dynamics in the first quarter of 2024 were affected by the growth of gross value added in the following sectors: provision of electricity, gas and steam; air conditioning - by 4.9%, water supply, sanitation, waste collection and disposal, pollution control activities - by 4.5%, transportation and storage - by 3.1%, mining - by 1.4%.

Gross value added in the first quarter of 2024 in the sphere of public administration, military security, and social security decreased by 1.6%.

As reported, on April 26, the Bank of RUSSIA improved its forecast for Russian GDP growth in 2024 to 2.5-3.5% from 1.0-2.0% in the February version. At the same time, the Central Bank retained its forecast for economic growth in 2025 in the range of 1.0-2.0%, in 2026 - 1.5-2.5%.

The April forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development for GDP growth in 2024 is 2.8%, in 2025 - 2.3%, in 2026 - also 2.3%.

The consensus forecast of analysts surveyed by Interfax in early June suggests GDP growth in 2024 by 3.0% and in 2025 by 1.9%.