Supply shortages and tariffs are negatively affecting the global beef trade.
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Due to the reduction in livestock numbers, world prices for cattle are rising.
"Northern Hemisphere countries continue to post record prices," said Angus Gidley-Baird, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch. "However, in recent weeks, prices in the US and CANADA have declined slightly, suggesting a slight slowdown in market growth. Meanwhile, prices in the Southern Hemisphere continue to rise."
The decline in beef volumes in the North American market, coupled with a slight improvement in the Chinese market, has led to increased demand from beef suppliers in the Southern Hemisphere. This demand is now reflected in cattle prices.
Beef production continued to decline during the second quarter, with total volumes in the first half of the year down 1% compared to 2024 .
According to the RaboResearch report, the most significant declines were observed in Europe (-5% year-on-year), New Zealand (-17% year-on-year), and the United States (-5% year-on-year). Meanwhile, Australia and CHINA increased production in the first half of the year compared to the previous year.
Overall, RaboResearch forecasts a 2% decline in global beef production by 2025.
Tariffs affect US imports
The report notes that US tariffs are also impacting trade. The latest round of tariffs included an additional 40% on top of the existing 10% and an additional 26.4% on Brazilian beef imports.
In the first half of the year, Brazil shipped a record 336,000 tons of beef to the US, up 25% from the previous year. RaboResearch believes the additional tariff will have a significant impact on trade between Brazil and the US.
Analysts are asking whether the large volumes imported into the United States in the first half of the year will be maintained and sufficient to cover the American market in the coming months, or whether the market will face a shortage, which in turn will spur demand from other suppliers.
According to processors, supplies to the US remained relatively stable even after the introduction of tariffs, RaboResearch reports.
"Projections of rising live cattle prices in Brazil in the second half of the year may explain the current demand from U.S. importers for Brazilian beef," Gidley-Baird said.
However, the expert expects that by the end of the year, imports from Brazil will decrease by approximately 10,000–15,000 tons per month.
According to RaboResearch, reduced supplies to the US will create operational challenges for Brazilian processing plants. The US is the primary consumer of Brazilian trimmings, as the domestic market in this South American country prefers hindquarters. Redirecting volumes to other markets may require changes in carcass processing technology. China, the Middle East , and Egypt have historically been the primary importers of Brazilian forequarters.
In Europe, market shortages are also driving import growth. Furthermore, animal diseases such as bluetongue outbreaks continue to negatively impact production.
In June 2025, lumpy skin disease first appeared in Italy and France. Switzerland recently began vaccinating against the virus as a precaution.