Experts predict what will happen to the Russian economy in 2022

The growth of the Russian economy in 2022 will slow down from a high 4.2–4.3% following the recovery year 2021 to 2.5%, follows from the BLOOMBERG consensus forecast. In mid-December, the agency polled three dozen economists: the range of their estimates ranged from 1.7% (Kazakhstan research center NAC Analytica) to 3.3% (German Berenberg Bank).

Outside of the Bloomberg poll, there are even more pessimistic estimates, with Alfa Bank chief economist Natalia Orlova targeting 1.5% growth next year. She believes that 2022 will bring “strong financial volatility”, which, together with geopolitical risks, will create a very negative background for economic growth.

“The optimism of experts is actually exhausted by the current year, which will be the end of recovery growth,” writes the HSE in its own consensus forecast (it also expects a 2.5 percent growth by the end of 2022, .pdf). In the long term, the Russian economy will grow at a rate of about 2% per year, according to the HSE. The same long-term growth is also seen by Fitch, which explained in early December that it "does not see significant prospects for noticeable improvements in relation to institutional factors affecting potential growth <...> such as the judiciary and property rights."

The official macro forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, given back in September, assumes 3% GDP growth in both 2022 and 2023. But the majority of independent economists do not believe in the prospects for such growth, the HSE states. The Central Bank is more cautious in its estimates: the middle of its interval forecast (2-3%) is close to the consensus forecast.