Agricultural production increased by 0.2% in five months

In January-May, the dynamics of the industry depends on indicators in animal husbandry

Over the five months of 2021, agricultural production in all farms increased by 0.2% to 1.49 trillion rubles, Rosstat said. In May, it reached 416.2 billion rubles, which is 0.1% more than in May last year. In April, this indicator was negative and amounted to 0.1%. HEAD of the Center for Economic Forecasting of Gazprombank Daria Snitko said that the dynamics of agricultural production in January-May depends almost exclusively on livestock.

In January-May, all farms, according to calculations, produced 5.9 million tons of livestock and poultry for slaughter in live weight - 0.6% less than in the same period last year, MILK - 12.6 million tons (0. 6% more), eggs - 18.2 billion pieces (minus 0.9%), follows from Rosstat data. At the same time, in agricultural enterprises, the production of livestock and poultry decreased by 0.4% due to a decrease in poultry by 3.3%, while pig breeding added 2.3%, and the production of cattle for slaughter increased by 4.6%.

Rosstat also reported that, as of June 1, spring grain and leguminous crops were sown on 26.3 million hectares (26.8 million hectares a year earlier). Winter crops in agricultural enterprises perished on 1 million ha, which is 14.2% of their sown area, including cereals and legumes perished on 964 thousand ha (14%). For the 2020 harvest, the area of ​​dead winter grains was 144.4 thousand hectares (2%), Rosstat compared.

Taking into account the remaining winter crops, the area of ​​grain and legumes as of June 1 in agricultural organizations, according to calculations, amounted to 28.1 million hectares, which is 4.4% less than by this time in 2020. According to Snitko's forecast, this year the gross grain harvest will slightly decrease (-4-5%) compared to 2020, but the production of oilseeds and SUGAR beets will increase significantly. Therefore, the overall production index in the industry at the end of the year will be positive.

According to Maxim Nikitochkin, senior manager of the EY agro-industrial services group, the growth of agricultural production in RUSSIA in January-May by 0.2% is not indicative since the dynamics is calculated for the value of production volumes, that is, it takes into account extremely multidirectional changes in prices for agricultural products in 2021 . “The dynamics of agricultural production in physical terms would be more relevant, however, it would also be impossible to rely on it to a large extent because almost the entire volume of crop production does not fall in the first five months of the year due to the seasonality of the industry,” Nikitochkin explained. - For the first five months, you can draw any conclusion on animal husbandry. Earlier estimates of growth in livestock should be adjusted slightly down to 1-2%, forecasts for the dynamics in crop production at the level of 3-3.5% at the end of the year are still realistic.” Thus, Nikitochkin believes that in general the agricultural sector in 2021 is likely to grow in physical terms by 2-3% compared to 2020.

World Bank: state support has little effect on the development of the agro-industrial complex in Russia. Much more important is the global increase in food prices and favorable weather conditions 

The Ministry of Agriculture in the National Report on the Implementation of the State Program for the Development of Agriculture in 2020 estimated that by the end of 2021, agricultural production could increase by 1.5%. Including the crop sector is expected to grow by 2%, livestock - by 1%. In 2021, the gross harvest of grain and leguminous crops is projected at 127.4 million tons (95.4% compared to 2020), sugar beet - 39.6 million tons (116.8%), sunflower - 15.3 million tons (114.9%), potatoes - 22.1 million tons (112.9%), vegetables - 14.1 million tons (101.7%), the report says. Production of livestock and poultry for slaughter in live weight on all farms is estimated at 15.76 million tons, including cattle - 2.8 million tons, pigs - 5.6 million tons, poultry - 6.75 million tons. Egg production may amount to 44.88 billion pieces, milk - 32.62 million tons.