USDA raises the forecast for the production of meat and poultry

The U.S. overall red MEAT and poultry production forecast for 2022 is raised month-on-month, according to the latest USDA WASDE report, as higher beef and pork production more than offset lower poultry production. Beef production is boosted by higher expected slaughter of steers, heifers and cows, which more than offsets lower expected carcass weights.

Pork production rose in the second quarter at current slaughter rates, although carcass weights declined slightly. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which will be released on June 29, will provide data on the supply of pigs for slaughter in future quarters, as well as in early 2023. Broiler production is declining due to slaughter rates and recent hatchery data. Turkey production is declining at current slaughter rates. Beef, pork, broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2023 are unchanged from last month.

Beef exports will increase in 2022, reflecting stronger sales to several markets in Asia, and strong demand is expected to continue into early 2023. Stronger demand in several key markets supports higher pork, broiler and turkey EXPORT forecasts for 2022; forecasts for 2023 have not changed. For 2022, the forecast for beef imports has been lowered and pork imports increased, reflecting the latest trade data.

The cattle price forecast for 2022 is unchanged from last month. Price forecast for pigs, broilers and eggs in the second quarter is lower compared to last month; no changes are made to price forecasts for future quarters. The turkey price forecast for the second quarter is up from today's prices. No changes have been made to price forecasts for 2023.