USA: Broiler market review for week 33 from August 19, 2024

Average prices for chicken cuttings showed negative dynamics against the backdrop of declining prices for all products except chicken breast.

Prices are stable or mostly weak for 3- to 4-pound birds; stable for smaller birds. Supply is assessed as moderate, demand is weak to moderate. Processing schedules are normal. Inventories are balanced. Market activity is slow to moderate.  

The USDA's recent World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report provides a positive outlook for U.S. poultry production in 2025, forecasting continued growth as the industry recovers from recent challenges. Broiler production is expected to reach 47.5 billion pounds in 2025, maintaining the momentum built in previous years. This forecast reflects the resilience of the poultry sector, which has weathered the impact of avian influenza and fluctuating feed costs with remarkable stability.

However, although production is rising, poultry price forecasts show a more nuanced picture. The USDA slightly lowered its 2025 broiler price forecast to $1.27 per pound, slightly lower than the $1.29 per pound expected in 2024 . This adjustment is due to higher-than-expected prices through mid-2024, leading to higher-than-expected prices in the first quarter of 2025 (Zia Commodities, LLC) (USDA ERS).

In contrast, the turkey price forecast was revised downward. The USDA adjusted its 2024 forecast to 94.2 cents per pound, with prices expected to remain subdued in 2025 at $1.05 per pound. The decline reflects recent market data indicating weaker-than-expected demand in the turkey sector.

However, egg prices are expected to remain relatively high in 2024, with the USDA raising its forecast to $2.71 per dozen for the second half of the year. This growth is driven by lower inventories and more favorable market conditions. Looking ahead to 2025, USDA expects egg prices to decline slightly to $1.75 per dozen, although they will remain high compared to historical averages (Zia Commodities, LLC) (USDA ERS).

To summarize, while the U.S. poultry industry is poised for another year of production growth in 2025, price trends will vary among different products. Broiler prices are expected to decline slightly, turkey prices are expected to decline further, and egg prices are likely to remain relatively high before decreasing as the market stabilizes.

Dynamics of prices and sales volumes of broilers

Weighted average price for broilers by region

Region

Weighted average price, cents/pound

Sales (thousand pounds)

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

Oriental

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

Central

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

West

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

Dynamics of prices for chicken cutting

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