Agricultural production increased by 1.9% over ten months

In general, in January-October 2023, agricultural organizations sold 62.2 million tons of grain (plus 23.7%), livestock and poultry in live weight - 11 million tons (3.3%), MILK - 16.3 million tons (6 .2%), eggs - 28.4 billion pieces (+2.2%). The potato harvest in the first 10 months of 2023 increased by 8.8%, vegetables - by 5.8%. “As in previous years, the main share of grain (68.3%), SUGAR beets (89.6%) and sunflower (63.9%) was grown in agricultural organizations; potatoes (59.4%) and vegetables (50.2%) - in households,” says the Rosstat review. The turnover of organizations involved in fishing and fish farming in October amounted to 64.9 billion rubles, which in current prices is 52.4% more than the corresponding period of the previous year, for January-October - 13.8% more.

According to the general DIRECTOR of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) Dmitry Rylko, agricultural production this year may grow by 1-2%. The same forecast was made in November, although earlier ICAR admitted that 2023 could end with negative dynamics in the agricultural sector due to a reduction in grain and oilseed harvests . “Late crops - corn, sunflower, sugar beets  - increased [the dynamics of agricultural production],” Rylko explained.

Independent grain market expert Alexander Korbut previously said that, according to his estimates, agricultural production this year will show dynamics from minus 1% to 1%. “Now we can adjust this forecast upward - to plus 1-1.3%: a fairly large harvest of grains and oilseeds, a high yield of potatoes and vegetables. Moreover, apparently, it will also be calculated for households that are not directly counted, but  Rosstat  also counts them,” Korbut said. These factors allow us to hope that by the end of the year the figure will be higher, he added. Livestock farming, according to the expert, at comparable prices is growing steadily at 1-1.5% per year and does not have a serious impact on the overall dynamics.

The director of the Center for Market Research at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Georgiy Ostapkovich, said at the end of August that, according to his estimates, agricultural production growth in 2023 will be 2-3%; last month he adhered to the same forecast. “Based on the general rhetoric of the Ministry of Agriculture and other experts related to agriculture, it seems to me that production is growing by 2-3%. More likely, even by 2%,” said Ostapkovich. Thus, the wheat harvest in 2023 will be lower than last year’s, but other agricultural crops and livestock will allow it to remain in positive dynamics.

However, Ostapkovich pointed out, it is not so important what kind of growth - 1%, 2% or 3% - agricultural production shows, the main thing is that the industry is developing and continues to show positive results. “Interest is a statistical effect, and it sometimes increases due to the monetary component: that is, inflation goes up, and the volume of output in monetary terms increases, so nominal growth appears <...>. Looking at growth rates is a difficult process, but the main thing is that there is no failure,” said Ostapkovich.