Global poultry prices to rise as feed prices remain high

The outlook for the global poultry industry continues to improve, according to Rabobank's latest quarterly forecast. This is mainly driven by the opening up of the economy as vaccination rates rise in developed countries and growth in emerging markets.

This will help restore global and regional demand, and especially in the catering sector, which on average accounts for one third of global poultry demand. As supply is usually slow to respond to such increases, significant price inflation is possible in the second half of 2021, especially as feed prices remain high and avian influenza has disrupted the global breeding stock trade. Global trade flows are shifting, with less focus on China (due to rising local supplies) and the Middle East (due to food security ambitions) and more attention on Northeast Asia and Europe.

Production growth is expected in the US , Mexico, Japan and Russia, while market conditions are expected to improve in Europe and South Africa due to higher demand and (in Europe) lower production. Diseases continue to have a large impact on international markets. The high pressure of bird flu has shaken the industry in Northeast Asia and Europe and led to a drop in production in Japan, South Korea, Russia and the EU. Import restrictions have also affected export volumes from Europe (chicken and hatching eggs) and Russia (chicken), affecting shipments in the Middle East and Africa (MEA).

Feed prices are expected to remain high, albeit slightly lower than previously expected. The report says that high feed prices will slow the expansion of production in many markets. 

Covid-19 has had a major impact on global poultry trade, with quarterly trade volumes down 5-10%. Improved market conditions in Europe, Northeast Asia and Mexico will help restore trade flows in these regions. This should offset the tighter terms of trade in China and the MEA region caused by the outbreak of African swine fever.  

And this fact will be taken into account when preparing the monthly analytical report Meatinfo.ru