The Ministry of Industry and Trade announced the stability of food prices

The situation with food prices in the country as a whole is stable, including thanks to the actions of the government, said Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Viktor Yevtukhov. At the same time, according to him, the cost of a number of goods has significantly decreased. The Deputy Minister recalled that now the number of fairs is increasing in the regions, which simplify the sale of small farms and allow selling vegetables at an affordable price.

Yevtukhov also estimated the cost of specific categories of food products that were the most "problematic" during the period of price increases. “Prices for vegetables of the “borscht set” are significantly reduced, both the harvest and the seasonal factor affect this. Perhaps, for a number of goods, the price reduction is not as serious as we would like. For example, for cabbage: the later start of harvesting had an effect here, ”Yevtukhov quotes. He also noted that the cost of sugar and sunflower oil is now stable, and chicken eggs have fallen in price so that it is not buyers who are experiencing difficulties, but poultry farmers. A similar situation has developed with meat products.

The head of the National Meat Association (NMA), Sergei Yushin, said that in the first quarter of 2021, wholesale prices for meat, primarily broiler and pork, grew very quickly. The increase was 15-20% for different positions. This was primarily due to three factors: a nearly 6.5% decline in broiler production, a significant growth lag behind projected pork production, and high demand for meat, Yushin said. “In the summer, individual items that are in special demand also rose in price both in wholesale and retail. Prices for less popular items were either stable or declining. Wholesale commodity prices for poultry have stagnated for a long time since the beginning of summer, while pork has been volatile. But consumers hardly noticed it,” he explained.

Yushin also noted that a slow rise in prices for beef is now continuing. This is due to an increase in production costs, the absence of new serious players in the market, a decrease in livestock in dairy farming and the low profitability of the industry. Analyzing the cost growth, Yushin notes that when a consumer goes to a store for meat, he essentially buys a certain set of other goods and services there: grain, oilseeds and products of their processing, for example, meals, vitamins, mineral supplements, some of which are for the last a month and a half rose in price from 50% to 100%, a package that has risen in price by tens of percent. “Given how much all the components have risen in price, prices have not risen that much. Now they are growing in many countries of the world, which is confirmed by the UN FAO indices, but in Russia the increase is significantly lower than in many countries,”

In 2021, broiler meat production should approach last year's figures, the head of the NMA continues. If the growth rate for pork remains at least at the level of 3-4%, then wholesale prices for this type of meat should stabilize or even begin to decline, he believes. “In 2022, if ASF does not actively spread and enter industrial pig complexes, pork prices in the wholesale link may fall by 4-7%. The reason for this may be that, according to preliminary estimates, the increase in production will be 350-400 thousand tons in carcass weight. This is a very significant volume, - says Yushin. “Given that our prospects for increasing pork exports are limited, and there are almost no imports, all this volume will go to the domestic market. So far I have no reason to assume that consumption will also grow strongly, respectively,

Experts: In September, inflation will accelerate to a maximum since 2016. 

Streda Consulting Managing Partner Aleksey Gruzdev noted that in the first half of the year, wholesale and retail prices for dairy products were more or less stable, growth was observed periodically, but at the rate of inflation. In the second half of the year, prices may be revised due to an increase in production costs, the introduction of mandatory labeling and other factors, Gruzdev said. “The cost is growing both in the production of raw materials and in processing. Therefore, manufacturers will be forced to raise prices. The key question is how long it will take. They may raise prices a little every quarter, most likely throughout 2022. Retail chains do not need a sharp increase in prices,” Gruzdev commented.

And this fact will be taken into account when preparing the monthly analytical report Meatinfo.ru