USDA forecasts moderate food price increases in 2024

Food prices are projected to rise 2.1% in 2024 , with grocery store prices rising 1% and restaurant prices rising 4.4 %. Notably, the expected food price increase in 2024 will be the lowest since 2019, when it was 0.9% before the pandemic.

In 2023, prices are expected to increase for several food categories, including beef and veal (3.8%), dairy (4.0%), fats and oils (8.9%), processed fruits and vegetables (8.5%), and others. The only category that will see prices decline in 2023 compared to 2022 is pork , where prices are projected to decline by 0.8%. However, in 2024, the USDA expects prices to decline for categories such as eggs (14.5%), dairy (0.6%), fresh fruits (0.1%), and fresh vegetables (0.5%).

The USDA has been adjusting its 2024 food price forecasts monthly. Grocery store price forecasts have remained at 1.0% since July, while overall food price forecasts for 2024 started at 2.4%. Restaurant prices were originally projected to rise 4.5%.

It should be noted that these forecasts may be affected by external factors, including the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and geopolitical tensions such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. High energy prices could particularly impact restaurant food inflation. While consumers are expected to experience smaller increases in 2023 compared to previous years, forecasts are still above the 10-year average for all food prices. The current forecast for 2024 assumes that all food prices will be below the 20-year average, while restaurant prices are expected to remain above that level.