Experts: In September, inflation will accelerate to a maximum since 2016. Annual inflation started to rise from last year

The rate of price growth in Russia in September in annual terms may reach 6.8%, which will be a new maximum level since August 2016, follows from the consensus forecast compiled by RIA Novosti based on a survey of analysts. According to Rosstat, annual inflation has started to pick up since last year due to the weakening of the ruble and rising prices for some foodstuffs and commodities in the world. In June, the rate of price increase reached a record high since the summer of 2016 and reached 6.5%. In July, inflation slowed down to 6.46%; there are no official data for the last month yet.

In July, the Bank of Russia raised its inflation forecast for the current year to 5.7-6.2% from 4.7-5.2%, and for 2022 to 4-4.5% from the previous 4%. Analysts interviewed by RIA Novosti believe that the main factors behind the acceleration of inflation in September will be the import of inflation from global markets and the continued increase in prices for non-food products and services. The beginning of the school year, the expected rise in sugar prices, social payments to pensioners and the military will also affect.

The Chairman of the Union of Consumers of Russia, Petr Shelishch, believes that the rise in prices for basic foodstuffs, which is currently observed, will continue. However, vice-president of the Russian Grain Union Alexander Korbut said he sees no reason for a surge in food inflation. “From the point of view of produced resources and the correspondence between production and domestic consumption, I do not see any grounds for an increase in producer prices. The question is how it will be in practice. If you go to the store, you will notice that the prices of some goods have begun to rise. For example, eggplant and zucchini,” he said. - Potatoes have just started to arrive, selling prices for this product are about 24 rubles / kg - this is not much. As for bread, I see no reason to increase the cost.”

According to Rosstat, from 24 to 30 August, weekly inflation was 0.09%. A week earlier, deflation was observed in Russia at the level of 0.01%. Since the beginning of the year, consumer prices have risen by 4.68%. The Ministry of Economic Development noted that over the specified period, the growth rate of food prices, with the exception of fruits and vegetables, slowed down to 0.21% (0.3% a week earlier). Also, the seasonal decline in prices for fruits and vegetables continues to have a restraining effect (minus 0.91% over the week.

Meanwhile, the press secretary of President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, said that the head of state keeps the topic of inflation in Russia under his personal control and regularly discusses it with the government, TASS writes. According to him, inflation has increased, but thanks to the measures of the Central Bank and the government, there are grounds for confidence that it will return to the set limits in the foreseeable future. “Russia, after all, being a participant in world economic processes, cannot remain completely protected from this global inflation, so we naturally experience these consequences, but I repeat once again: the countermeasures that are being taken by the government and the mega-regulator allow us to be sure that macroeconomic stability can be ensured and maintained,” Peskov added.

Consumer price index, according to Rosstat, from 24 to 30 August 2021 

At the same time, the Food Price Index in August rose by 3.1% compared to July, to 127.4 points after two months of decline, follows from a press release from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The increase in the index is mainly due to rising prices for vegetable oils, cereals and sugar.