Experts: the abolition of import privileges by the EAEU Council will not affect the cost of meat in Russia. It will be replaced or not imported at all

The decisions of the Council of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) to more than halve the list of developing countries that are entitled to a 25% discount on import duties will not affect the cost of MEAT in RUSSIA, experts interviewed by Agroinvestor believe. The changes were approved on March 5 and will come into effect on October 12. However, Vedomosti, referring to the words of the associate professor of the Department of International Business and Customs of the Russian University of Economics. Plekhanov Elena Rozhanskaya, they write that against the background of the changes, a significant increase in prices is possible, in particular for canned meat and meat.

“Meat is imported to Russia mainly from Belarus (31.8%), Brazil (26.2%), Paraguay (17.8%) and Argentina (11.8%). But at the same time, Russia is the most important meat market for Paraguay (second place with a share of 30.3% after Chile with a share of 34%). For Argentina, we are the fourth most important buyer with a share of 4.7% of all meat supplies, ”Rozhanskaya told the publication. According to her, producers from these countries can simply raise prices for their products, but this will largely depend on how important the Russian market is for them.

The HEAD of the National Meat Association, Sergei Yushin, said that it was impossible to predict the EXPORT value of beef in the future for six months, because prices on the world market are very volatile. “There are dozens of factors that generally influence price dynamics. Only the size of the customs duty will increase, but if prices on the world market in the countries where we buy meat from - Brazil, Paraguay, Argentina, India and Colombia - decrease, or we buy a different assortment, there will be no increase, ”Yushin believes. He also noted that the dynamics of the cost of other types of meat also affects prices. So, if the prices of poultry and pork fall, this will hold down the prices of beef. “That is, ceteris paribus, the foreign trade cost will increase if the cost in the markets of exporting countries does not change. But today we cannot know this, ”Yushin concluded.

DIRECTOR General of the National Union of Beef Producers Roman Kostyuk said that the decision of the EAEU Council will not affect the cost of meat in Russia. If this affects Russian prices, then not all meat will rise in price, but specific cuts, in a certain place and quantity, and "all this does not have a significant impact on the country's overall meat market," he said. “Don't confuse the segments that can feel the change with the market industry. If we import less than 20% of meat, some of which will rise in price, this will not affect the entire market of our country, Kostyuk is sure. - A small part will not affect the prices of meat that is produced in another country. This part will be replaced or not bought at all, and if they are, then those people who choose a premium product and are used to it.”

He noted that the new rules say that there are several types of duties and quotas within the WTO in our country, which Russia is now changing and putting in order. “But the rules within the EAEU do not change. Nobody canceled the obligations of the EAEU countries under the WTO. Therefore, there is nothing significant, just a technical correction, simplification,” Kostyuk explained.

Director General of the National Union of Pig Breeders (NSS) Yuri Kovalev is sure that the new rules will not affect pork at all. Firstly, Russia almost does not import pork, and secondly, there is a preference for developing countries, primarily Latin America, which do not pay the full duty, but only 75% of the rate, he said. “We supplied pork and beef from Latin America, but there was no such preference for pork, and now there are almost no imports,” Kovalev added.

Meanwhile, Sergei Lakhtyukhov, general director of the National Poultry Union, told Izvestia that wholesale prices for broiler meat are falling amid the ongoing Lent. According to him, the wholesale prices for chicken meat, which increased at the beginning of the year, first stabilized, and now they are declining and have already won back more than a third of their growth. The words of Lakhtyukhov were confirmed to the publication by the Director General of the Russian Poultry Union Galina Bobyleva. The press service of the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia that over the past 30 days, producer prices for a broiler carcass have increased by 1.4%. However, by April 14, wholesale prices began to decline and reached 124.3 rubles/kg, down 0.3% over the week. According to Rosstat, since the beginning of the year, by April 12, average retail prices increased by 14.6% and amounted to 165.7 rubles per kg. However, the dynamics of price growth decreased: