What to expect from the Chinese meat market this year

The Chinese meat market is changing very quickly and is expected to focus more on imports of beef and cattle this year, while imports of pork and live pigs will decrease significantly , a recent USDA analysis showed .

Pork imports for 2022 are downgraded to 3.3 million tonnes due to competition from cheap domestic pork, higher tariffs on pork imports (from 8 percent to 12 percent), a less optimistic economic outlook, and ongoing COVID -related restrictions. 19 , and market failures. China's pork production is estimated to reach 50 million tons in 2022, up 5% from 2021 due to higher pig production and higher slaughter levels. The report says that major producers continue to expand their share of the pork production market.

Imports of live breeding pigs in 2022 are estimated lower at 20,000 head. Low hog and piglet prices, which persisted in 2022, are expected to dampen demand for imported breeding pigs.

The pig production forecast for 2022 is 665 million heads, up 2% from 2021, due to higher starting stock and more productive sows. Producer losses, as well as government policies aimed at stabilizing the pig population, are expected to reduce the volatility of production and pig production in 2022. The plan calls for maintaining the national stock of sows at 41 million and sets a "normal" stock target for each province/district, which should not fluctuate by more than 5%.

Pig losses from animal diseases are expected to decrease in 2022, but ASF is expected to remain endemic. In October 2021, the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) identified a new less virulent strain of ASF. This strain is less dangerous for pigs, sows and piglets.

As for the beef market, China is expected to increase imports by 3%, reaching a total volume of 3.1 million tons this year, which is almost equal to the volume of pork imports. China's cattle production is expected to rise to 52.5 million head in 2022, but live cattle imports could also reach 375,000 head, mostly from South America.

Beef production in 2022 is estimated at 7.15 million tonnes, up 2% from 2021. It is estimated that beef imports for 2022 will rise to 3.1 million tons. Growth is expected to be lower than in 2021 due to a less optimistic economic outlook and COVID-19-related restrictions, but still 3% higher than in 2021.

In 2022, Brazil will remain the largest supplier of beef after China lifted restrictions on beef products in December 2021.