18% of FMCG network suppliers expect sales to decline in 2022

INFOLine specialists summed up the results of the annual industry survey "Expectations for the dynamics of the consumer market in 2022". More than 200 largest manufacturers of FMCG products with annual sales exceeding 1 billion rubles took part in the survey.

The main objective of the study, conducted in the second quarter of 2022, was to analyze the impact of geopolitical events on the market, assess the effectiveness of interaction between suppliers and retail chains, and forecast the prospects for the development of the consumer market in a crisis and economic sanctions.
About 84% of respondents told analysts about sales growth in 2021. In terms of forecasts, the vast majority of food and FMCG manufacturers are optimistic, with 74% expecting sales to grow in 2022, 8% stagnate and 18% see declines. According to INFOLine, the increase in sales in monetary terms will be associated with the activation of inflationary processes, a reduction in the number of promotions due to a shortage of goods and limited marketing activity.
At the same time, INFOLine believes that a decrease in promotional activity, the withdrawal of some international brands from the market and a change in the ownership of a number of food industry enterprises will entail an accelerated development of private labels. According to the survey, 52% of manufacturers paid serious attention to the release of private labels in 2021, while 35% of survey participants did not deal with private labels, specialty and exclusive brands. Analysts predict that the share of the latter will drop to 21% by the end of 2022.
Difficulties with the purchase of raw materials and ingredients against the backdrop of sanctions were indicated by almost all the companies surveyed.

In addition, the study "Expectations for the dynamics of the consumer market in 2022" reflects the interaction of manufacturers with retail chains and the success of this cooperation, online sales of the largest suppliers, the impact on business of the economic crisis and government regulation. Of considerable interest are also the export performance of companies in the sales structure of 2019-2021 and their forecast for 2022 - about 46% of respondents reported plans to increase export supplies this year. And this is taking into account the imposition of sanctions and the difficult foreign policy situation.