Prices for flights abroad have decreased in Russia after the hype in 2022

After last year's takeoff, ticket prices to popular international destinations began to decline in the early summer of 2023. There were more flights and routes, the hype also fell

The average prices for flights to the most popular international destinations from RUSSIA in June 2023 decreased compared to June 2022, ticket aggregators and Aeroflot recorded.

The three most popular destinations for Russians in June (46% of the total number of tickets sold on international routes), according to Yandex.Travel, were Turkey , Armenia and Kazakhstan . The average price of a round-trip flight between Russia and Turkey decreased by 14%, to 34.3 thousand rubles, Russia and Armenia — by 9%, to 25.3 thousand rubles, Russia and Kazakhstan — by 4%, to 29.4 thousand rubles The cost of flights to Azerbaijan has also significantly decreased.(fifth place; by 23%, up to 35.7 thousand rubles), the United Arab Emirates (eighth place; by 20%, up to 40.8 thousand) and Israel (11th place; by 7%, up to 52.4 thousand). In June, tickets to Azerbaijan and Armenia fell most of all - by 31% (to 36.8 thousand rubles) and 15% (to 26.4 thousand), respectively, Ivan Zhivitsa, a representative of the Tutu.ru travel service, confirms. A decrease in the average check for some international destinations was also recorded in the Aviasales air ticket search engine, its PR DIRECTOR Janis Dzenis said: “Of course, [our] numbers may differ, but this is quite similar to the trend.” If we take all foreign destinations, the average cost of a flight from Russia in June 2023 fell by 23%, a representative of the Aeroclub company (operating in the business travel services market) said: a round-trip ticket cost business travelers 69.6 thousand rubles. rub., business class flights fell by an average of 7%, to 302 thousand rubles. “We also note a decrease in the level of tariffs on international airlines, in particular on routes to the CIS,” said an Aeroflot representative. RBC sent inquiries to the press services of other major Russian airlines.

Immediately after the start of Russia's military special operation in Ukraine , air tickets abroad rose sharply. At the beginning of March 2022, the Association of Tour Operators of Russia (ATOR) recorded a boom in demand for flights abroad in the coming dates. The most popular destinations were major interchange hubs - Istanbul and Dubai. The cheapest ticket from Moscow to Istanbul, according to ATOR, cost 53.5 thousand rubles. one way, for some airlines prices reached 163 thousand rubles. Tickets to Dubai cost from 83 thousand to 424.5 thousand rubles. Now you can buy one-way tickets from Moscow to Istanbul and Dubai on July 6 for 25.5 thousand and 27 thousand rubles. respectively.

Why prices have dropped

As of July 1, according to the Federal Air Transport Agency, it was possible to fly from Russia to 36 countries without transfers: more than 20 Russian and foreign airlines operated flights to them. In 2019, before the pandemic, Russian airlines flew to at least 68 countries. At the beginning of 2022, after the removal of covid restrictions, air traffic was opened with 78 states. But due to a special military operation, international sanctions were imposed against Russia - in particular, flights of Russian airlines to the EU , usa , CANADA and other countries were banned. In June 2022, it was possible to fly to only 22 countries, and according to the results of that year, the international passenger traffic of Russian airlines decreased by 34%, to 17.48 million people.

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Due to various restrictions related to the reception of aircraft abroad (refueling, ground handling), the opening of a new international direction is “a difficult track,” Aeroflot CEO Sergei Aleksandrovsky admitted at the end of last year. But in 2022, Russian airlines were able to remove part of the fleet from registration in the Bermuda aviation registry, which made it possible to put additional aircraft on foreign routes where there were restrictions on the use of aircraft with the so-called dual registration, that is, registered in two jurisdictions at once, the executive notes. directorbranch agency "AviaPort" Oleg Panteleev. In some cases, there has been a replacement of Superjet (which can fly abroad without the risk of arrest or denial of maintenance) with more spacious liners that have a lower cost per passenger-kilometer. According to Panteleev, the airlines had the opportunity to cut costs in some places, which also had a positive effect on prices. “Since August 2022, supply and demand have come into balance, and there has been a price reduction on the market,” said an Aeroflot representative.

To ensure the full load of aircraft, airlines are forced to reduce prices, which are very high on international routes, Zhivica argues. “Flight prices decreased year on year due to an increase in the number of flights to Turkey, the UAE, a number of neighboring countries, as well as to CHINA and Southeast Asia. The trend started back in May, but continued in June,” says Artur Bolshakov, a Yandex.Travel representative. “Despite the fact that most states have limited air traffic with Russia, the situation has remained more or less stable since June last year. This means that airlines with less risk can plan their flight schedules, including those with transfers in neutral countries,” adds Olga Nasikovskaya, HEAD of strategic consulting at Kasatkin Consulting.

The cost of air tickets is also affected by the components of the cost of flights, in particular, the price of fuel, the amount of leasing payments, the cost of servicing ships, said Alexander Divakov, director of the corporate ratings group of the NKR agency. “Over the past year, they have all increased, so the reason for the decline in ticket prices is more likely to be due to a decrease in demand from consumers,” he said. Now, compared to last summer, the rush demand from relocators has subsided and route grids have been more evenly distributed, which has led to a correction in airfare prices, Olga Arkhangelskaya, partner of the B1 group of companies, agrees. Domestic tourism is actively developing, and Russian travelers began to use domestic flights more, which reduced the demand for flights abroad, the expert notes.

What's next for prices

As of June 2023, the Ministry of Transport expected that Russian airlines would carry 19.3 million people in international traffic by the end of the year, which is 10.4% more than in 2022. Continued expansion of the route network may have a positive impact on the availability of transportation in the future, Nasikovskaya believes. However, one should not forget about such negative factors as the falling ruble exchange rate (since the beginning of June, the DOLLARstrengthened by 10%, to 90.34 rubles) and rising prices for jet fuel, which accounts for up to a third of the cost of air tickets. As a result, the cost of air tickets to international destinations for foreign airlines will vary in proportion to the ruble exchange rate, and Russian flights will rise in price by 10-20% per year due to the need to maintain the fleet on their own under the current restrictions, the expert warns. Indeed, a short-term reduction in prices for some destinations is possible, but in the medium term, given the depreciation of the national currency and the increased costs of airlines, prices will rise, Divakov states.

The weakening of the ruble will make flights abroad less attractive due to rising costs in tourist trips, Panteleev notes. “This could reduce the demand for flights. Therefore, there is a possibility that there should be no price increase in the near future,” he reassures. The lower the aircraft load, the more the airlines will reduce the cost of tickets, but significant price changes are not expected, Zhivica said.