Nabiullina assessed the likelihood of a future global crisis

The timing of the global crisis, the scenario of which the Central Bank described in early September, is conditional, and the likelihood of an onset is “very low,” Elvira Nabiullina told RBC. But such a scenario is needed to show the reaction of the Central Bank,

The Bank of RUSSIA assesses the likelihood of a global financial crisis "as very low," Elvira Nabiullina, HEAD of the Central Bank, said in an interview with RBC. The scenario of such a development of events in 2023, among the alternative ones, was described by the Bank of Russia in the draft Guidelines for Monetary Policy.

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“The scenario indicates the year 2023, but it is absolutely conditional and is needed to show what the consequences could be if this scenario is realized over a three-year forecast period. I emphasize that we estimate its probability as very low, ”Nabiullina said. “This should by no means be seen as some sort of prediction of a crisis,” she added.

The Central Bank described the scenario of the global financial crisis Economics

The head of the Central Bank believes that the pandemic crisis that erupted in 2020 stands alone and is not related to the economic cycle. “We are now seeing how debts have accumulated in many countries, and many fear that there are already bubbles, and the value of financial assets does not reflect the cost of risks. We see that in the conditions of a loose monetary policy, there are such negative consequences. And therefore, we considered it appropriate to show how an already cyclical global crisis can unfold and what the reaction of the Central Bank to it will be, ”explained the Chairman of the Central Bank.