МВФ призвал Россию нарастить господдержку экономики на фоне второй волны

In the face of a deteriorating economic situation and an increase in covid-19 infections, the Russian authorities should be ready to take additional measures to support businesses and the population, follows from the conclusion of the November mission of the International Monetary Fund led by Jacques Mignan. At the same time, according to the IMF, the Russian government needs to work on removing structural constraints in the economy, otherwise Russia's medium-term GDP growth will not exceed 1.6% per year.

The threat of a new downturn in business activity

The Russian economy showed signs of a healthy recovery in the third quarter, but it is now under threat due to a sharp increase in the incidence of COVID-19, the IMF notes. In early November, the Bank of Russia stated that against the backdrop of a worsening epidemiological situation, the recovery of the Russian economy had stalled in September, and GDP growth rates in 2021 would be lower than forecasts (.pdf). According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in October, the fall in Russia's GDP in annual terms accelerated to minus 4.7% compared to minus 3% in September (.pdf). Unemployment in October for the second month in a row remains at the level of 6.3% of the labor force, follows from the data of Rosstat (.pdf).

Quarantine restrictions, which were again introduced in a number of Russian regions, will have a less severe impact than those introduced in the spring, the IMF expects. But business activity could slow down in the coming months if more restrictive measures are required. Such a scenario, in turn, will lead to new layoffs and a further deterioration in the financial condition of enterprises. Most entrepreneurs have been working under force majeure conditions for almost a year, recalls Andrey Pavlov, HEAD of the Delovaya Rossiya light industry committee. “The second lockdown will be the last for many of them. All reserves have long been spent. Neither the state nor the business has extra money. The main request of business is not to close [the economy] completely, ”the RBC interlocutor notes.