Experts have recorded a decrease in business conflict in Russia during the crisis

The business conflict index fell by 4%, but still remains “unprecedentedly high,” experts say.The largest increase in the level of conflict was recorded in the Magadan region

In Russia, there is a decrease in the level of conflict in the business environment. This was reported in the Bulletin of the Business Environment Conflict Index (Index A1), created by the investment company A1 and the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo (available to RBC).

“The turbulent first quarter was replaced by a more stable second one: in June, the level of stability, predictability and composure in the market was already significantly higher than in March,” experts say.

The A1 index is calculated using a special formula that takes into account the dynamics of three indicators:

the number of lawsuits in arbitration courts and courts of general jurisdiction, selected according to the topics of corporate disputes; messages in print and electronic media at the federal and regional level, dedicated to corporate conflicts; number of companies sufficient for corporate disputes of size in a given market.

Thus, compared to the previous quarter, the A1 index decreased by 4%, but still remains “unprecedentedly high” and now stands at 2.14. It reached its peak value in the first quarter - 2.23. And from the beginning of 2019 until the second quarter of last year, it did not rise above 2.

The level of business conflict in Russia has reached a historical maximum Business

Among the Russian regions, the largest increase in the level of conflict was observed:

in the Magadan region - 1.8 (by 497.9%); in Karachay-Cherkessia - 1.27 (by 357.6%); in Ingushetia - 2.64 (by 217.6%); in the Republic of Altai - 1.95 (by 186%); in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug - 1.19 (by 160.8%). Read on RBC Pro Pro x The Economist Instead of Alibaba:

Experts, in particular, explained the high increase in the level of conflict in the Magadan region by an increase in the number of litigations between the construction organization "Association of Designers" and contractors.

Among the regions of conflict reduction were named:

Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug - 1.02 (by 82.6%); Penza region — 0.84 (by 68.9%); Adygea - 1.05 (by 56.2%); Yakutia - 0.5 (by 56.1%); Tatarstan - 0.94 (by 54.3%).

The bulletin indicated that the main tools for calculating the A1 index behave in different directions: the number of lawsuits has decreased, while the press has begun to write about conflicts more often.

Experts noted that if in the second quarter of 2019 one “conflicting” article in the media accounted for 90 market participants, now this figure is twice as high: 45 companies per publication about a corporate dispute.

The “fading of conflicts” in the business environment can partly be explained by the fact that many players have switched to buying the assets of foreign companies leaving Russia, the report says.

According to the forecast of the index developers, in the third and fourth quarters of this year, the level of conflict in the business environment will continue to decrease, as investors in Russia will be more busy developing niches opened with the departure of Western companies, rather than arguing with each other.

Nevertheless, the increasing role of the media in corporate disputes will become a long-term trend in Russia, experts say, which will keep the A1 index at around 2.