The authorities estimated the possible incidence of COVID by the end of the year

How many people can get COVID-19 before the end of the year

The Federal Compulsory Medical Insurance Fund (FOMS) estimated the possible cost of providing medical care to patients with coronavirus for the second half of 2021 (from July to December) at just over 111 billion rubles. This amount is based on the forecast of the Ministry of Health that during this period 3.9 million cases of COVID-19 infection may be detected in Russia. This is stated in the analytical note of the Accounts Chamber on the execution of the fund's budget for the first half of 2021 (available to RBC). Of the nearly 4 million potential new cases of coronavirus, only 20% may require medical care in a hospital, that is, we can talk about a little more than 784 thousand hospitalizations, the fund indicates.

The Accounts Chamber also writes that the fund needs an additional 65.4 billion rubles to provide medical care to insured Russians in the second half of the year. In addition, almost 60 billion rubles will be required. for compensation of wages of workers, payment of utilities, etc., the note says.

Probably, the Ministry of Health looked at the number of new detected cases of coronavirus infection now (about 19 thousand daily) and “extended” these data until the end of the year, the forecast for 4 million cases in the second half of the year is very pessimistic and is calculated with a margin, says epidemiologist Anton Barchuk. “The Ministry of Health predicts a new round of the pandemic with a new strain, no less severe than in the previous six months, when about 3 million people fell ill in six months. It is not a fact that this will happen, but the advantage is that the money for such a scenario is already in the budget,” he sums up.

Associate Professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases of RUDN University Sergey Voznesensky also suggested that the Ministry of Health takes into account the most pessimistic scenario in order to provide the necessary funds to overcome it. Despite the fact that it is impossible to say with complete certainty that another wave of COVID-19 will begin in Russia in the fall, there are reasons for this: a general rise in respiratory infections and a mutation of the coronavirus. “There is a risk that herd immunity will not work and those who have already been sick will get sick again. Therefore, it is better to have beds ready for deployment, purchased drugs, etc., ”he told RBC.