Virologists estimate the risk of an increase in mortality from COVID-19 to 200 per day

Daily mortality from covid-19 is unlikely to increase significantly, interviewed virologists told RBC. So they commented on the words of the HEAD of the Center. N.F.Gamalei Alexander Gintsburg, who said that this level "could grow to 200 deaths per day, then we will reach a plateau."

“I can’t agree with Alexander Leonidovich that the death rate is growing, because it has already been calculated that now 40 times fewer patients need hospitalization [than at the beginning of the pandemic],” the scientific DIRECTOR of the Research Institute of Vaccines and Serums named after I.I. .Mechnikov, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vitaly Zverev.

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According to the scientist, now, "most likely, people with cancer, diabetes, and other severe chronic diseases are dying." “I don’t think the death rate will increase. The number of sick people is decreasing – naturally, the number of deaths should also decrease. Most likely, we are on a plateau and we should not expect an increase in mortality and an increase in morbidity, ”he added.

Anatoly Altshtein, chief researcher at the Gamaleya Research Center for Epidemiology and Microbiology, told RBC that the death rate is unlikely to increase significantly. “I don't think that number will increase much. After some time, the decline should begin. But it is difficult to predict exactly when it will start,” he said. According to the scientist, “we now have a high incidence of 50-60 thousand people a day,” but at the same time, “mortality is 100 people a day, the virus has a low mortality rate, about 0.3%. “At the very beginning of the pandemic, the mortality rate was about 5%. Nevertheless, the disease is terrible, severe, you need to be vaccinated, observe restrictive measures, ”Altshtein said.

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Now the death rate from COVID-19 has fallen, Zverev added: “It used to be percentages - now tenths of a percent, that is, at least 20-30 times.”

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Gintsburg previously said that "deaths [from coronavirus] have increased 3.5 times" in recent days. According to him, despite the increase in the number of cases, "the healthcare system will cope with this." As of September 18, 101 deaths from coronavirus were confirmed per day, 2,322 people were hospitalized, and 56,751 new cases of COVID-19 were detected.

September 21, 11:00 Moscow time Coronavirus Russia Moscow World +53045 (per day) 20.6 million Infected 0 +107 (per day) 386.3 thousand Died +6647 (per day) 3.2 million Infected 0 +30 ( per day) 45.8 thousand Died +546213 (per day) 612.9 million Infected 0 +1777 (per day) 6.5 million Died Source: JHU, federal and regional headquarters for combating the virus