Virologists called the timing of a new wave of influenza and coronavirus

An increase in the incidence of respiratory infections is expected in the second half of January, an infectious disease specialist, professor, DOCTOR of medical sciences Nikolai Malyshev told RBC. “About the 20th of January, the number of diseases, as a rule, grows. And this applies not only to CORONAVIRUS and influenza, but in principle to any respiratory viral infections. In the past two years, the number of such diseases was less because people wore masks and observed self-isolation. Now, in general, the incidence has risen again, ”he added.

Malyshev said that after the New Year holidays, a temporary decrease in the number of cases is expected. “Immediately after the New Year holidays, the incidence should, of course, be lower. There is always a rise before the new year, and after seven to ten days - a decline. The incidence increases, respectively, three weeks after the New Year, ”he said.

According to him, this is due to the fact that during the holidays people are more likely to stay at home. “People are disconnected on holidays: children do not go to school, adults do not go to work. They are also less likely to visit places where there are a lot of people, and public transport becomes much less congested. Still, there are a lot of those who prefer to spend the New Year holidays at home, ”he clarified.

Murashko reported almost 1,8 million Russians with flu in a week Society

The surge in incidence will most likely not affect the coronavirus, but the influenza virus, Larisa Popovich, DIRECTOR of the Institute for HEALTH Economics at the Higher School of Economics, said in a conversation with RBC. “The situation with the coronavirus has stabilized, it has reached a fairly stable plateau. If vacationers do not bring some new infectious strain to RUSSIA after the holidays, there should not be a serious surge. With influenza, the situation is more complicated: it walks briskly, the incidence is increasing. If there is active communication on New Year's holidays, the number of people with flu may increase even after them. But even if people celebrate in the family circle and the weather is cool, a surge is expected closer to February, a new wave of flu usually occurs at this time, ”she clarified.

According to Popovich, in early February there is usually a surge in the incidence of other viral infections. “We have many other respiratory diseases: parainfluenza, rhinovirus, adenovirus and others. Rhinovirus - this is what is associated with the common cold - takes almost 50% of all respiratory infections. But of all the things that can get sick, the flu is now considered the most dangerous, it is more severe than the strains of covid that are common today, ”she said.

Popova announced a decline in the incidence of covid-19in Russia Society

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Popovich stressed that in order to prevent the disease, it makes sense to get vaccinated against influenza. “Now you can get vaccinated even during the epidemiological rise, so as not to get sick in the next wave, which is expected in February,” she concluded.

Previously, virologists explained the increase in the incidence of influenza by the fact that during the coronavirus pandemic, people were less likely to be vaccinated against influenza. Also, according to Sergei Voznesensky, Associate Professor of the Department of Infectious Diseases of the Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, in 2022 the statistics on influenza became worse, as in previous years Russians used preventive measures more actively and wore masks more often.