"Crack in the financial system": how big are the risks of a global recession

Clouds have gathered over the world economy in the form of severe consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and other geopolitical risks, global tightening of monetary policy, slowdown in China, leading investment banks and analytical structures are in solidarity. Most of them do not include in the baseline scenarios for 2023 a global recession, much less a global crisis like the one in 2009. However, a recession is all but guaranteed in various parts of the world, economists point out, and, as usual, there are risks of extreme events and uncertainties that could dim baseline forecasts.

City

American Citibank warned in late November that recessions will sweep across a number of economies. In the eurozone and the UK, a recession will begin at the end of 2022. In the US, the recession could begin by mid-2023, by which time higher Federal Reserve rates will have had their full effect on consumers and businesses.