Rosstat has updated its estimate of Russia's population.

Russia's permanent population as of January 1, 2024, was 146.15 million (146,150,789), according to an updated estimate from Rosstat. Compared to the updated data published in January, this figure has decreased by 52,800 people. As a result, according to the revised data, the population in 2023 will decrease by 296,600 people. According to the preliminary estimate, the decrease was 243,800 people, while at the end of February, Rosstat reported a decrease of 290,600 in its report on the socio-economic situation.

Rosstat data show that the population declined more slowly in 2023 than in 2022, when it declined by 532,600. Furthermore, Rosstat's updated estimate was more optimistic than the baseline version of its demographic forecast (prepared in the fall of 2023), which projected a population decline of 368,000 in 2023, to 146.08 million.

The data provided does not include statistical information for the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, as well as the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Population dynamics are determined by natural growth/decline (births minus deaths) and the net influx/outflow of international migrants. According to Rosstat's updated estimate, natural population decline in 2023 was 500,300 (compared to 594,600 in 2022), while net migration was 203,600 (compared to 61,900 the previous year).

The natural population decline in 2023 decreased compared to 2022 due to the pandemic making a large contribution to mortality in the first three months of 2022.covid-19 , demographer Igor Efremov explained to RBC. The migration increase changed due to the low base effect of 2022, which was caused by a "statistical artifact"—the formal postponement of the expiration of long-term registrations (and, consequently, departure registrations) for foreigners in RUSSIA from the COVID-19 year of 2021 to 2022 due to the borders being closed in 2021 (by presidential decree). As a result, the mortality rate in Russia in 2023 decreased by 7.6%, while the birth rate fell by 3.2%, Rosstat reported in February.

Among the regions, the largest population declines in 2023 in absolute numbers, according to updated data, were recorded in the Nizhny Novgorod Region (minus 21,500 people), Kemerovo Region (minus 20,600), and Saratov Region (minus 19,800). Growth was observed in the Moscow Region (plus 59,500), Moscow (plus 45,600), and Tyumen Region (plus 39,600).