“The subspecies launches the mechanism”: scientists predict a new wave of COVID

A new wave of CORONAVIRUS infections may cover St. Petersburg in the summer of 2022. This forecast was given by the Vice-Rector for Digital Transformation of Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University, HEAD of the working group on mathematical prediction of the spread of covid-19 Alexei Borovkov. We recall that scientists from the Polytechnic University have developed their own mathematical model for predicting the epidemiological situation in the city.

"It could be a new subspecies"

According to Borovkov, the attenuation of the current wave of coronavirus will last until the beginning of summer, then there may be another rise due to increased mobility of the population, the return of citizens from vacations and the arrival of tourists.

“Judging by how the processes are going, the model gives a smooth decay. [For a new peak] there must be a local impact on the system. First of all, it can be a new subspecies of the strain, which is constantly being generated and appears. We are monitoring these messages. And the opening air communication between countries, of course, can contribute to the fact that this subspecies can be imported from another country, from vacation, business trip, and so on. And now he will launch the distribution mechanism in RUSSIA,” Borovkov said.

The mathematician added that the current wave of “covid” in St. Petersburg began to fade on February 14, when there were over 270,000 active patients in the city. In mid-February, for example, Dmitry Lisovets, chairman of the St. Petersburg HEALTH Committee, said: “In St. Petersburg, there is a slowdown in the growth of epidemiological indicators <...> This allows us to count on the fact that the peak of the fifth wave of the pandemic has been overcome.”

The potential of the "omicron"

The biologist and independent analyst Alexei Kupriyanov also spoke about the fact that a new wave of “covid” could cover St. Petersburg in the summer. True, he associated the risk not with the emergence of a new strain, but with the high potential of "omicron".