When China becomes the world's first economy: 5 scenarios from Bloomberg

When will China overtake the US as the world's largest economy? This is one of the most burning questions for directors of companies who would like to know which market will be the most profitable in the long run; for investors wondering about the future of the global reserve currency; and for the military looking for points of geopolitical tension to develop their strategies.

In Beijing, where the Chinese Communist Party just celebrated its 100th anniversary, leaders have gone to great lengths to show that the baton is in their hands and change is inevitable. "The Chinese nation," as President Xi Jinping said, "is moving relentlessly on the path of great renewal."

When China managed to contain the spread of the virus at the beginning of the coronavirus crisis, and the country's economy even continued to grow at a moderate pace, the United States faced hundreds of thousands of deaths and a recession. Back then, many were inclined to agree with statements like those proclaimed by Xi Jinping. But recently, the unexpectedly fast recovery of the US economy has shown how much uncertainty still remains about when the correction will come and whether there will be one at all.