
The fighting in Ukraine and the pandemic will continue. Rising commodity prices will help producers, but will exacerbate food insecurity and hit the economies of many countries. While global GDP growth will slow to 1.6% in 2023 from 2.8% in 2022, inflation will remain at 6%, forcing central banks to raise interest rates further. However, China will keep rates low and may ease its "zero tolerance" policy on COVID-19 , which will boost global trade.