The expert predicted a decline in the incidence of COVID-19 by autumn

Aghasi Tavadyan, an expert in statistics and modeling at the Center for Economic Research, does not rule out a decline in the incidence of CORONAVIRUS in two months. He told RIA Novosti about this. In his opinion, the incidence will peak within three weeks.

“I believe that in 1-3 weeks the incidence reaches a peak and will reach a plateau, a decrease should be expected no earlier than in two months. Unfortunately, it is clear that the virus spreads faster in this wave,” he said.

In his forecasts, Tavadyan relies on a map of Russian regions for covid-19 . The regions are divided into four groups: "green", where the spread of the virus is less than 0.9 (positive), "light yellow" - 0.9-1.0 (stable), "orange" - 1.0-1.1 (satisfactory), "red" - 1.1-1.2 (negative - unsatisfactory). The distribution index R less than one indicates a decrease in the incidence, more than one indicates an increase.

The most difficult situation is in Moscow, the Kostroma region, the Khabarovsk Territory, Tuva, the Moscow region, the Amur region, Khakassia, the Kirov region, Komi, Sevastopol, Buryatia, the Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Chukotka, the expert noted. In these regions, the prevalence index exceeds 1.2.

Earlier, mathematicians from St. Petersburg State University predicted the peak of coronavirus infections in Russia at the end of June. The number of cases of COVID-19 detected per day can reach about 25 thousand, scientists say. After that, the incidence should decline, the number of infected per day will drop to 20 thousand people.

At the same time, Rospotrebnadzor does not rule out that the spread of coronavirus may accelerate due to the insufficient number of vaccinated and those who have been ill who still have antibodies.

The situation with coronavirus in Russia began to worsen in early June. Authorities attribute the rise in new cases of COVID-19 to the spread of the Indian strain.