The analyst called the features of the new wave of COVID-19 in Bashkiria

In a new wave of CORONAVIRUS, the number of hospitalized patients in Bashkiria may increase from the current hundred people a day to 300-400 patients, according to open data analyst Alexander Dragan. In a conversation with RBC Ufa, the expert noted that at the same time, the current wave of the pandemic will not give the same load on hospitals as in previous peak periods, but the load on outpatient and laboratory units will be more significant.

Peak values ​​of the daily incidence can reach as early as October. From the current 200 cases recorded by official statistics, the figure could reach 3-4 thousand per day. The dynamics will also depend on whether, after a sharp reduction, the previous volumes of testing for coronavirus will return, the expert says.

“Until the end of summer, we will probably see the daily incidence in Bashkiria in the range from 500 to 1000 cases. But without testing data, it is impossible to give any reliable forecasts, and Bashkiria does not publish them, and even on the website of the regional Ministry of HEALTH, the latest briefings on coronavirus were published at the end of May, ”the analyst says.

According to Alexander Dragan, a new wave of coronavirus came to the region in mid-July - it was from that period that the incidence began to gradually increase. This is also evidenced by the growth of COVID-specific search queries, when sick residents of the republic or people who have infected relatives begin to look for data on symptoms, prognosis of the course of the disease, specific drugs for the treatment of coronavirus, etc. However, the healthcare system has not yet fully felt a new wave, as the situation with the incidence remains generally calm.

“According to search queries, it is clear that growth began in mid-July, which began to accelerate in August. This can be seen both in the official statistics of morbidity and in the statistics of hospitalizations. The level of hospitalizations in the republic for a long time kept at minimum levels, but in the second half of July it began to grow, 104 people were hospitalized the day before, a week ago the figure was three times lower. On average, over the past week, about 40 people were hospitalized per day, in mid-July - 15-20 people each, ”Dragan said.

Today, 430 beds for patients with coronavirus have been deployed in Bashkiria, the free bed fund is 12%, this is the minimum load since the beginning of the pandemic. In 2021, even at the lowest level, about 900 beds were occupied, and at the peak of the wave last fall, 7.3 thousand beds.

In the new wave, Russians will get sick en masse, but at the same time, due to collective immunity, the number of hospitalizations, severe illness and deaths will be less than in previous waves, the expert believes.

“Further on, there will be an active increase in the number of cases and hospitalizations, it is possible to return restrictive measures in the regions, the resumption of the mask regime and other restrictions, from which everyone managed to wean. I would expect a protracted wave for the next two to two and a half months. Moreover, this wave will be characterized primarily by a large load on the outpatient system and a less serious load on the inpatient system. This is due, among other things, to the presence of herd immunity, because the vast majority of the population has been ill or vaccinated, or vaccinated and recovered from it, ”says Dragan.

According to the Ministry of Health of the Republic, over the past day in Bashkiria, coronavirus has been confirmed in 195 people, the total number of cases has reached 294,156. There are 193 patients with coronavirus in hospitals in the region, including 116 over 60 years old. The condition of seven patients is assessed as serious, one patient is connected to a ventilator. One fatal case was registered per day, in total, the pandemic claimed 5,782 lives in the republic. 287,366 patients managed to cope with the disease, 260 people were discharged the day before with recovery.

Earlier, experts interviewed by RBC Ufa reported that the increase in the number of coronavirus cases in the republic was caused by the spread of BA.4 and BA.5 strains, as well as a subvariant known as the “centaur”. The peak of a new wave of the pandemic is predicted in early September, ending in October. "Centaur" is called a more severe variant of the coronavirus than "omicron", its incubation period is three to five days, a temperature of up to 38 degrees, a dry cough, muscle weakness, etc. are typical. The incidence will increase by the end of August as vacationers return, doctors predict.